GBP\/JPY pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc art arda alt\u0131nc\u0131 i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde y\u00fckseldi ve 214,87 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu seviye, 4 \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. Hareketin arkas\u0131nda, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131yla Yen\u2019de s\u00fcren zay\u0131flama vard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00fcksek ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi (ithalat ve ihracat fark\u0131) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan endi\u015fe yarat\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fclke enerjide ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim, arz\u0131n aksamas\u0131 riskini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri sonu\u00e7suz kal\u0131nca \u0130ran limanlar\u0131n\u0131 hedef alan bir deniz ablukas\u0131 (donanman\u0131n denizden giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 engellemesi) emri verdi. Bu ad\u0131m, petrol arz\u0131nda daha uzun s\u00fcreli aksamalar olabilece\u011fi kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japonya, enerji arz \u015foklar\u0131na (petrol ve do\u011falgaz tedarikinde ani bozulma) \u0130ngiltere\u2019den daha a\u00e7\u0131k; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ithalat\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan geliyor. Artan ithalat maliyetleri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131layabilir ve enflasyonu y\u00fckseltebilir.<\/p>\n
BoJ (Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda, ekonomi ve fiyatlar\u0131n genel olarak tahminlerle uyumlu oldu\u011funu ve temel enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) bankan\u0131n hedefine do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Enflasyon risklerinin iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu, jeopolitik gerilimlere ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon beklentilerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin temel enflasyonu art\u0131rabilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de ise daha y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri enflasyonu y\u00fcksek tutabilir ve %2 hedefe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir; bu da faiz indirimi alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. GBP\/JPY ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ngiltere-Japonya faiz fark\u0131ndan destek buluyor. USD\/JPY\u2019de 160,00 seviyesi ise ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Japonya\u2019n\u0131n piyasaya m\u00fcdahalesiyle (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131) ili\u015fkilendirilen bir e\u015fik olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
GBP\/JPY\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fin, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fla g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Brent petrol\u00fcn son bir ayda %12\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, Yen\u2019i Sterlin\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha fazla zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Bunun nedeni, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n birincil enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n (petrol, gaz gibi temel enerji kaynaklar\u0131) %90\u2019dan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etmesi ve Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 arz \u015foklar\u0131na \u00e7ok hassas olmas\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran limanlar\u0131n\u0131 hedef alan yeni deniz ablukas\u0131, Yen \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131ran temel etken olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu geli\u015fme, enerji krizlerinde Yen satma e\u011filimini (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Yen\u2019den \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p ba\u015fka para birimlerine y\u00f6nelmesi) g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da son \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,5 olsa da BoJ\u2019un temkinli kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ueda\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin i\u00e7 talebi (t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar) zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da faizin mevcut %0,10 seviyesinden sert \u015fekilde art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek getiri arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in Yen\u2019i cazip olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ters y\u00f6nde: Yap\u0131\u015fkan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (kolay gerilemeyen, kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyreden enflasyon) son d\u00f6nemde %3,8 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu durum, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n %5,25\u2019lik faizini indirmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece \u0130ngiltere ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesi, GBP\/JPY\u2019ye destek vermeye devam edebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, GBP\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. 216,00 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (opsiyonu kullanma hakk\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fdu\u011fu fiyat) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: kur y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) almak, y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken azami riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlama imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir. \u0130\u015flemdeki pozitif ta\u015f\u0131ma (carry: iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131ndan do\u011fan getiri) da sermaye giri\u015flerini destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak USD\/JPY 160,00 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken m\u00fcdahale riski yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Japon yetkililer 2022 ve 2024\u2019te benzer psikolojik e\u015fiklerde Yen\u2019i desteklemek i\u00e7in piyasaya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015fti. Bu nedenle uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, olas\u0131 ani ters harekete kar\u015f\u0131 \u201czararda\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money put: mevcut fiyattan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) ile korunmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol \u015foku Yen\u2019i \u00e7\u00f6kertiyor! GBP\/JPY alt\u0131 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr y\u00fckselip 214,87\u2019ye, 4 \u015eubat zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Brent 115$ \u00fcst\u00fcnde, \u0130ran ablukas\u0131 riski b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; faiz fark\u0131 Sterlin\u2019i desteklerken m\u00fcdahale riski izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44499"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44499\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}