ABD dolar\u0131, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n hafta sonu ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olan bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na 10ET itibar\u0131yla abluka (liman giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n engellenmesi) ilan etmesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Piyasalarda ayr\u0131ca hisse senedi ve tahviller zay\u0131flarken, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY – dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks), Asya seans\u0131ndaki erken zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekildi. Bu zirve 99,2\u2019nin sadece biraz \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye, sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc ate\u015fkes a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fcn i\u00e7i en y\u00fcksek seviyeydi.<\/p>\n
Dolar daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olsa da DXY\u2019deki toparlanma \u015fimdilik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Son fiyat hareketi, ge\u00e7en haftaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filime (ay\u0131 e\u011filimi – fiyatlar\u0131n gerileme e\u011filimi) i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa hareketleri g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ablukaya dair kapsam ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye etkisi konusunda ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Rapora g\u00f6re, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zay\u0131flatabilir; K\u00f6rfez\u2019den arz (piyasaya gelen petrol miktar\u0131) azal\u0131rsa Asya \u00fclkeleri en fazla risk alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Enerji taraf\u0131 en sert hareketi g\u00f6rd\u00fc: Brent petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyelere y\u00fckseldi. Bu durum, CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX – petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) %30\u2019un \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131 ve opsiyon i\u015flemlerini (belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) daha pahal\u0131 hale getirdi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, abluka s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e petrolde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call – fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeli.<\/p>\n
Dolar ilk etapta g\u00fc\u00e7lense de Dolar Endeksi (DXY), 100 seviyesindeki \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7 noktas\u0131n\u0131 (fiyat\u0131n a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) ge\u00e7mekte zorlan\u0131yor ve 99,5 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor. Bu zay\u0131f devam hareketi, dolar\u0131n genel e\u011filiminin h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Bu nedenle tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi, dolarda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir; dolarda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon (uzun pozisyon – y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle yap\u0131lan i\u015flem) ta\u015f\u0131mak riskli.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde tedirgin; bu, S&P 500 haberle gerilerken VIX\u2019in (korku endeksi – piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 18\u2019den 24\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu ortamda, uzun portf\u00f6yleri endeks sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla (put – fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) korumak \u00f6ncelik olmal\u0131. Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 satmak (volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 – dalgalanma d\u00fc\u015fer beklentisiyle prim toplama) amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa straddle gibi stratejiler (ayn\u0131 vadede put ve call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131) gerilim belirgin \u015fekilde azalana kadar \u00e7ok tehlikeli.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir tablo 2022\u2019de de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fc 140 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015f, bunun sonucunda enflasyon h\u0131zlanm\u0131\u015f ve merkez bankalar\u0131 sert \u00f6nlemler (faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 gibi) alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nem, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir petrol \u015fokunun (ani ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fi) \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lay\u0131p k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi birka\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek yava\u015flatabilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Ablukan\u0131n uzamas\u0131 halinde mevcut durum da ayn\u0131 yola girebilir.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki zarar, K\u00f6rfez\u2019den enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k nedeniyle muhtemelen Asya ekonomilerini daha sert vuracak. Bu nedenle petrol ithal eden geli\u015fen piyasalarda zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu, ilgili \u00fclke ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak (ETF – borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) veya Hindistan Rupisi ve Tayland Baht\u0131 gibi para birimlerinde sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almak (short – d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle i\u015flem) anlam\u0131na gelebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok geli\u015fme: Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na abluka karar\u0131 dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; ancak DXY 100 direncini a\u015fam\u0131yor. Petrol 115$ \u00fcst\u00fc, OVX s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; hisseler zay\u0131f, VIX y\u00fckseldi. Asya b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi riskte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44498"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44498\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}