Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (AMB), mart ay\u0131nda temel faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Bankalar\u0131n AMB\u2019de tuttu\u011fu paraya uygulanan **mevduat faizi** %2,0 seviyesinde; bu seviye, ekonomiyi ne belirgin \u015fekilde destekleyen ne de belirgin \u015fekilde yava\u015flatan **n\u00f6tr seviye** olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Deutsche Bank ekonomistleri art\u0131k haziran ve eyl\u00fclde iki adet **25 baz puanl\u0131k** (0,25 puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. Piyasalar bu iki ad\u0131m\u0131 zaten **fiyatlam\u0131\u015f** durumda (yani beklenti fiyatlara yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f).<\/p>\n
Y\u0131l sonuna kadar piyasalar yakla\u015f\u0131k **66 baz puan** ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu da \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %64 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistler, 2026 i\u00e7in Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %1,1\u2019den %0,5\u2019e indirdi. Gerek\u00e7e olarak daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve zay\u0131f ekonomik veriler g\u00f6steriliyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun 2026\u2019da %2,8 olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n mali politikas\u0131, daha geni\u015f Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir destek unsuru olarak an\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
AMB zor bir dengeyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya: Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in bu y\u0131l iki kez faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak ekonomi belirgin \u015fekilde yava\u015fl\u0131yor; bu da faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan riskli oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Piyasa, haziran ve eyl\u00fclde iki adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 zaten fiyatlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde mart ay\u0131 enflasyonu %2,4 ile AMB\u2019nin %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; bu tablo faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gerek\u00e7esini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. \u00d6te yandan, son i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketleri ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin **Sat\u0131nalma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi (PMI)** (\u015firketlerin \u00fcretim ve sipari\u015f e\u011filimlerini \u00f6l\u00e7en anket) imalatta 47,1 ile **daralma b\u00f6lgesini** (50\u2019nin alt\u0131, faaliyette d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) g\u00f6sterdi. Bu zay\u0131f veriler, AMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 ve %0,5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminine ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019deki enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131nda AMB\u2019nin haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalan\u0131p faizleri sert art\u0131rmak zorunda kalmas\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bu deneyim, AMB\u2019yi bug\u00fcn daha \u201csert\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeye itiyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc **g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini** (piyasalar\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye inanmas\u0131n\u0131) korumak istiyor. Temel endi\u015fe, enflasyonun yeniden **kal\u0131c\u0131 h\u00e2le gelmesi** (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye yerle\u015fmesi); bunun k\u0131sa vadede b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye zarar verme pahas\u0131na bile olsa.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan yakla\u015f\u0131m, zay\u0131f ekonomi nedeniyle AMB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne beklenenden erken ara vermesine g\u00f6re pozisyon almak. Bu, **t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7lar** (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerinden yap\u0131labilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin **faiz swap\u0131** (iki taraf\u0131n sabit ve de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demelerini takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) veya **Euribor\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli kontratlar** (gelecekteki Euribor faizine dayal\u0131 standart s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler). Ama\u00e7, ekonomik veriler bozulursa piyasan\u0131n eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlardan \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda da \u00f6zellikle euro i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. AMB zay\u0131f ekonomiyi \u00f6nceliklendirse ve faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ara verse, euro ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybedebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar EUR\/USD\u2019de **sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put)** (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; euro d\u00fc\u015ferse bu opsiyonlar de\u011fer kazan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: AMB faizi sabit, mevduat faizi %2\u2019de \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d. Deutsche Bank haziran\u2013eyl\u00fclde iki 25 bp art\u0131\u015f bekliyor; y\u0131l sonu 66 bp fiyatlan\u0131yor, b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2026\u2019da %0,5\u2019e \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44493","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44493"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44493\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44493"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44493"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44493"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}