ING ekonomistleri Peter Virovacz ve Frantisek Taborsky, Macaristan\u2019da Tisza liderli\u011findeki yeni s\u00fcper \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fun (mecliste \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00e7o\u011funluk) k\u0131sa vadeli politika belirsizli\u011fini azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Buna ek olarak daha h\u0131zl\u0131 kurumsal onar\u0131m (devlet kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fleyi\u015finin iyile\u015ftirilmesi), AB ile ili\u015fkilerde d\u00fczelme ve mali g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fin (b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplinine g\u00fcven) artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fini belirttiler.<\/p>\n
AB fonlar\u0131yla ilgili anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n, yayg\u0131n beklentilere ra\u011fmen h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeyebilece\u011fini ifade ettiler. AB\u2019den para \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 (fonlar\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131) ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce gecikmeler bekliyorlar.<\/p>\n
Makroekonomik varsay\u0131mlar (b\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon, faiz gibi temel tahminler) de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi i\u00e7in b\u00fct\u00e7enin yeniden yaz\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylediler. Devral\u0131nan b\u00fct\u00e7e ve ekonomik politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesinin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede mali g\u00f6stergeleri (b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, bor\u00e7 dinamikleri gibi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctler) k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirebilece\u011fini eklediler.<\/p>\n
Yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin euroya ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in bir hedef tarih belirleyip buna ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in bir yol haritas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylediler. Bu yol haritas\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha sonra g\u00fcncellenebilece\u011fini belirttiler.<\/p>\n
Yeni s\u00fcper \u00e7o\u011funluk siyasi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc netle\u015ftiriyor, ancak bu istikrar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyallerle geliyor. K\u0131sa vadede b\u00fct\u00e7e kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ile uzun vadede kurumsal onar\u0131m ve g\u00fcven art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi \u00e7ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu durum, 2025 se\u00e7im d\u00f6neminde zaten y\u00fcksek olan forint opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Devral\u0131nan b\u00fct\u00e7eyi s\u00f6kme s\u00fcrecinin baz\u0131 olumsuz rakamlar\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Macaristan\u2019\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 2.321 milyar forinte ula\u015ft\u0131; politikay\u0131 yeniden d\u00fczenlemek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede olas\u0131 ek bozulma forinti bask\u0131layabilir. Bu ortam, EUR\/HUF paritesinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 destekler; hedef 400 seviyesinin \u00fczerine hareket.<\/p>\n
AB fonlar\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na dair iyimserli\u011fe temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131lmal\u0131. 2023-2025 d\u00f6neminde bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ne kadar uzayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck; gecikme, para birimi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir deste\u011fi ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131r. Bu belirsizli\u011fin s\u00fcrmesi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1-2 ay i\u00e7in forinte kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 (bearish; de\u011fer kayb\u0131 beklentisi) destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k euroya ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in hedef tarih a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 ihtimali, g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemeyecek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir pozitif kataliz\u00f6r (fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zla etkileyebilecek geli\u015fme). G\u00fcvenilir bir a\u00e7\u0131klama, yak\u0131nsama i\u015flemleri (convergence trade; \u00fclke riskinin azalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle para birimi\/varl\u0131k al\u0131m\u0131) devreye girdi\u011fi i\u00e7in forintte belirgin bir y\u00fckseli\u015f yaratabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, k\u0131sa vadeli riski b\u00fcy\u00fctmeden bu olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete haz\u0131rlanmak i\u00e7in daha uzun vadeli ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha uzak al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (out-of-the-money call; mevcut kurun \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 olan) de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, EUR\/HUF \u00fczerinde takvim spreadi (calendar spread; farkl\u0131 vadelerde opsiyon al-sat kombinasyonu) i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Mevcut y\u00fcksek primlerden (opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131l\u0131rken, ayn\u0131 anda daha ileri vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nabilir. B\u00f6ylece k\u0131sa vadede zay\u0131fl\u0131k veya yatay seyrin ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde forintte g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ihtimaline pozisyon al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar dikkat: Macaristan\u2019da Tisza s\u00fcper \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu k\u0131sa vadeli belirsizli\u011fi azalt\u0131rken, b\u00fct\u00e7e \u201cs\u0131f\u0131rlama\u201d riski forinti bask\u0131layabilir. AB fonlar\u0131nda gecikme olas\u0131; euro hedefi kataliz\u00f6r. EUR\/HUF\u2019da opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44492"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44492\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}