HSBC, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 ve di\u011fer G8\u2019in (d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomileri) ana para birimlerini en \u00e7ok etkileyen unsurlar oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Banka, dolarla petrol aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011f\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor; bunu da arz \u015foklar\u0131na (\u00fcretim\/ta\u015f\u0131ma kaynakl\u0131 ani petrol k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131) ve g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131na (risk art\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n dolara y\u00f6nelmesi) ba\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Banka, piyasa hareketlerinin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan (Basra K\u00f6rfezi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131) ge\u00e7en sevkiyatlardaki aksamalara ve petrol\u00fcn izleyece\u011fi yola ba\u011fl\u0131 olabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. Jeopolitik riskteki dalgalanmalar\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (risk-off: hisse gibi riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) ile \u201crisk alma\u201d (risk-on: riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neli\u015f) aras\u0131nda gidip getirebilece\u011fini ekliyor.<\/p>\n
HSBC, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinin net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131na (kendi ihtiyac\u0131ndan az enerji \u00fcreten \u00fclkelere) destek olabilece\u011fini ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n risk alma iste\u011fi) art\u0131rabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor; bu durumda \u201crisk-on\u201d para birimlerinin \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d para birimlerinden daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fini belirtiyor. Japon yeninin geride kalabilece\u011fini, USD\/JPY 158\u2013162 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndayken m\u00fcdahale riskinin (yetkililerin kura do\u011frudan i\u015flemle m\u00fcdahalesi) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not ediyor.<\/p>\n
Banka, petrol\u00fcn 100 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelenmesinin net ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar \u00fczerindeki k\u0131sa vadeli bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltabilece\u011fini, resesyon riskinin (ekonomik daralma) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve maliye politikas\u0131 endi\u015felerinin (kamu borcu\/b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kayg\u0131lar\u0131) artabilece\u011fini ifade ediyor. Bu senaryoda, kur piyasas\u0131n\u0131n dar bantta seyretmesini ve y\u00f6n\u00fcn hafif\u00e7e dolar lehine olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
HSBC, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u00fczerinden petrol ve do\u011falgaz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcreli bir aksaman\u0131n duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bozabilece\u011fini, g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131rabilece\u011fini ve net ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi etkisiyle (ithalat maliyeti art\u0131nca \u00fclkenin gelir-gider dengesinin bozulmas\u0131) olumsuz etkileyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Dolar\u2013petrol ba\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131flarsa, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi kur dinamiklerinin (b\u00fcy\u00fcme, faiz, enflasyon gibi temel g\u00f6stergeler) yeniden daha belirleyici olabilece\u011fini; Fed\u2019in \u015fu an faiz art\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve net bi\u00e7imde \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli) bir tutumda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma 2025 sonlar\u0131nda sertle\u015fti\u011finden beri, ABD dolar\u0131 ile petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha birlikte hareket etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi ve Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 106\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, hem enerji arz\u0131 kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hem de yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman olarak dolara y\u00f6nelmesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu tablo, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcndeki piyasa davran\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan farkl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Uzun s\u00fcreli bir aksama, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve Japonya gibi net enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131na daha \u00e7ok zarar verebilir. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi verileri, Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin enerji ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu durum euro \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. \u0130\u015flem yapanlar, EUR\/USD\u2019de (euro\/dolar paritesi) ek zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 destekleyebilecek bir gerilim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izlemeli.<\/p>\n
Japon yeni \u00f6zellikle zay\u0131f; ancak USD\/JPY \u015fu an 159\u2019un \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in dikkatli olmak gerekiyor. 160 civar\u0131ndaki benzer seviyeler, 2025 sonlar\u0131nda Japon yetkililerin m\u00fcdahalesini tetiklemi\u015fti. Bu risk, yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fine oynayan i\u015flemleri zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc olas\u0131 bir kamu m\u00fcdahalesi sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Petrol ile dolar aras\u0131ndaki pozitif ba\u011f\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131, eski piyasa al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn erken sinyali olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin petrol\u00fcn, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 85 dolar seviyelerine do\u011fru gerilemesi, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir ve emtia para birimlerine (emtia ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerin para birimleri; \u00f6rn. CAD, AUD) destek verebilir. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli i\u015faret, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan tankerlerin uzun s\u00fcre sorunsuz ve bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l ge\u00e7i\u015finin devam etmesidir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca dolar\u0131n genel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek unsurlar var. Fed faiz art\u0131rm\u0131yor; mart enflasyonu %3,1 ile biraz y\u00fcksek gelse de Fed daha sert bir \u00e7izgiye ge\u00e7medi. Jeopolitik korkular hafiflerse, bu duru\u015f dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
HSBC\u2019ye g\u00f6re Orta Do\u011fu jeopoliti\u011fi ve petrol, dolar\u0131 yeniden direksiyona ge\u00e7ti: Arz \u015foku ve g\u00fcvenli liman talebi dolar\u2013petrol ba\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, risk-on\/off, EUR\/USD bask\u0131s\u0131 ve USD\/JPY\u2019de m\u00fcdahale riski kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44489","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44489"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44489\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}