Macaristan\u2019daki se\u00e7im, Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019\u0131n 16 y\u0131ll\u0131k iktidar d\u00f6nemini bitirdi; Peter Magyar\u2019\u0131n Tisza Partisi \u201cs\u00fcper \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fa\u201d (parlamentoda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck sandalye \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) do\u011fru ilerliyor. \u00dc\u00e7te iki \u00e7o\u011funluk, Magyar\u2019\u0131n kurumlarda ve anayasada de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri daha kolay yapmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Planlar aras\u0131nda Orb\u00e1n\u2019a yak\u0131n isimlerin g\u00f6revden al\u0131nmas\u0131 yer al\u0131yor: cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131, \u00fcst d\u00fczey yarg\u0131\u00e7lar, ba\u015fsavc\u0131 ve devlet d\u00fczenleyici kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n (\u00f6r. rekabet, enerji, finans gibi alanlar\u0131 denetleyen otoriteler) ba\u015fkanlar\u0131. Magyar ayr\u0131ca ba\u015fbakanl\u0131k i\u00e7in iki d\u00f6nem s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 getirece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nerilen reformlar, Macaristan\u2019\u0131 AB standartlar\u0131na (hukukun \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve yolsuzlukla m\u00fccadele gibi kurallara) daha fazla yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilir ve \u015fu anda \u201cdondurulmu\u015f\u201d olan 20 milyar eurodan fazla AB fonunun serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Burada \u201cdondurulmu\u015f fon\u201d, AB\u2019nin hukukun \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve yolsuzluk endi\u015feleri nedeniyle \u00f6demeyi durdurdu\u011fu kaynak anlam\u0131na geliyor. Orb\u00e1n d\u00f6neminde Macaristan, Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in planlanan 90\u2013103 milyar euroluk kredi paketini engelledi ve Ukrayna ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 AB yard\u0131mlar\u0131 ile yapt\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131n\u0131 (k\u0131s\u0131tlama\/ceza niteli\u011findeki ekonomik \u00f6nlemler) defalarca geciktirdi veya bloke etti.<\/p>\n
Sonucun ard\u0131ndan forint, hem euroya hem de ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Bu hareket, forintin bu y\u0131l geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimleri (y\u00fckselen piyasa para birimleri) aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans\u0131n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019te Macaristan\u2019daki b\u00fcy\u00fck siyasi de\u011fi\u015fimin ard\u0131ndan forintte sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu ilk hareket, Orb\u00e1n d\u00f6neminin kapanmas\u0131 ve AB ile ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle beslenmi\u015fti. Piyasa, olumlu beklentilerin \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 \u201cfiyatlad\u0131\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar beklentiyi kura\/varl\u0131k fiyat\u0131na k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yans\u0131tt\u0131).<\/p>\n
Bir y\u0131l sonra, somut ilerleme olsa da kurdaki ivme zay\u0131flad\u0131. 2025\u2019te euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 de\u011ferlenen forint sonras\u0131 EUR\/HUF kuru (1 euronun ka\u00e7 forint etti\u011fi) son \u00e7eyrekte 360\u2013368 band\u0131nda nispeten dar bir aral\u0131kta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Son veriler Avrupa Komisyonu\u2019nun daha \u00f6nce dondurulan fonlardan 12 milyar euronun \u00fczerinde \u00f6deme yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterse de piyasa bir sonraki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tetikleyiciyi bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu yatay seyir, EUR\/HUF opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyelere \u00e7ekti; bir ayl\u0131k s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerde \u015fu an yakla\u015f\u0131k %7,5. Bu durum, y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya (kurun banttan yukar\u0131\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 net \u00e7\u0131karak trend ba\u015flatmas\u0131) haz\u0131rlanmak i\u00e7in opsiyon almay\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. K\u0131r\u0131lma; kalan AB fonlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler veya yeni kurumsal reformlarla tetiklenebilir. Opsiyon maliyetinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131, forintin olas\u0131 bir sonraki de\u011fer kazan\u0131m dalgas\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 veriyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politikas\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate almak gerekir; \u00fclkenin risk g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki iyile\u015fme, bankaya b\u00f6lgesel benzer \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re faizi daha rahat indirme alan\u0131 tan\u0131yabilir. \u201cFaiz indirimi\u201d, politika faizinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015fetilmesi anlam\u0131na gelir. Tarihsel olarak, 2023 Polonya se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen benzer siyasi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m geri d\u00f6nd\u00fck\u00e7e para biriminde uzun s\u00fcreli g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle, Macaristan ile ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) aras\u0131nda para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izlemek i\u00e7in faiz t\u00fcrevlerini (faize ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyatlanan vadeli i\u015flemler\/kontratlar) takip etmek gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Budape\u015fte\u2019de sand\u0131k depremi: Orb\u00e1n d\u00f6nemi bitti, Peter Magyar s\u00fcper \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fa ko\u015fuyor. Kurumsal \u201cs\u0131f\u0131rlama\u201d AB fonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zebilir; forint %2+ g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00f6rt\u00fck volatilite, EUR\/HUF opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma \u00f6ncesi cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44482","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44482"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44482\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}