Rusya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 \u015fubatta 5,353 milyar dolara geriledi. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde bu rakam 6,597 milyar dolard\u0131. De\u011fi\u015fim 1,244 milyar dolarl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eubatta d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131ndaki bu gerileme, ekonomi \u00fczerinde artan bask\u0131n\u0131n net bir i\u015faretidir. Bu tablo, ihracat gelirlerinin (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na sat\u0131\u015ftan gelen d\u00f6viz) zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ithalat maliyetlerini (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan al\u0131m i\u00e7in \u00f6denen d\u00f6viz) kar\u015f\u0131lamakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu durum d\u00f6viz kurunu do\u011frudan etkiler; bu nedenle yak\u0131n vadede rublenin ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u0131\u015f ticaret verisi, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n deniz yoluyla ham petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde %3,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve Urals petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn Brent\u2019e g\u00f6re iskontosunun (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyata sat\u0131lmas\u0131) ortalama 19 dolar seviyesine geni\u015fledi\u011fini g\u00f6steren son raporlarla uyumlu. Bu g\u00f6stergeler rublenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; bu nedenle USD\/RUB vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon (kur y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefi) veya al\u0131m opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) giderek daha mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir strateji haline geliyor. Bu geli\u015fmeye verilen ana tepki olarak bunu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini belirgin bi\u00e7imde daraltm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan ruble bir sonraki \u00e7eyrekte %8 de\u011fer kaybetmi\u015fti. Bu tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc, mevcut e\u011filimin USD\/RUB kurunu 100 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve paran\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri: Rusya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 \u015fubatta 5,353 milyar dolara inerek 1,244 milyar dolar darald\u0131. \u0130hracat zay\u0131f, petrol iskontosu geni\u015f; rublede bask\u0131 art\u0131yor, USD\/RUB\u2019de 100 \u00fczeri risk b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44481","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44481"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44481\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}