Societe Generale, ge\u00e7en hafta Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k verilerinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Mart RICS konut anketinin (RICS: \u0130ngiltere\u2019de emlak sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn meslek kurulu\u015fu; anket, konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131n nabz\u0131n\u0131 tutar) \u00e7o\u011fu g\u00f6stergede daha zay\u0131f ko\u015fullara i\u015faret etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Daha yumu\u015fak talebi; daha y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri, daha az mortgage (konut kredisi) se\u00e7ene\u011fi ve y\u00fckselen mortgage faizlerine ba\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) Kredi Ko\u015fullar\u0131 Anketi 23 \u015eubat-13 Mart d\u00f6neminde yap\u0131ld\u0131 ve enerji fiyat \u015fokunun ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi de kapsad\u0131. Ankete g\u00f6re bankalar, 2026\u2019n\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde teminatl\u0131 hanehalk\u0131 kredileri (konut gibi varl\u0131kla g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na al\u0131nan kredi) ve \u015firket kredilerinde hem talebin hem de krediye eri\u015fimin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta BoE \u00fcyeleri Bailey, Greene, Taylor ve Mann\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmalar\u0131 var. Bunlar\u0131n, 30 Nisan\u2019daki MPC (Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki \u201csessiz d\u00f6nem\u201d (blackout: toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi yetkililerin kamuya a\u00e7\u0131k yorum yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem) ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nceki son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar olmas\u0131 bekleniyor; toplant\u0131da faizin sabit kalmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bailey daha \u00f6nce piyasan\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131; buna ra\u011fmen piyasada h\u00e2l\u00e2 yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 baz puanl\u0131k (bp: baz puan; %0,01) art\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131yor. Taylor, ge\u00e7ici bir ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, faiz indiriminin Nisan kadar erken bir tarihte g\u00fcndeme gelip gelemeyece\u011fine de\u011finebilir.<\/p>\n
Veri taraf\u0131nda Societe Generale, \u015eubat GSYH\u2019nin (GDP: Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck) ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Ayr\u0131ca daha y\u00fcksek akaryak\u0131t maliyetleri ve zay\u0131flayan g\u00fcven ortam\u0131nda t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131na dair g\u00fcncelleme i\u00e7in BRC Mart perakende sat\u0131\u015f endeksini (BRC: \u0130ngiliz Perakendeciler Birli\u011fi; endeks perakende sat\u0131\u015f e\u011filimini g\u00f6sterir) izleyecek.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k konut piyasas\u0131, 2025\u2019in ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u015faretlerini yeniden veriyor. Mart 2026 RICS Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Konut Piyasas\u0131 Anketi, yeni al\u0131c\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n iki ayd\u0131r yatay seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da mortgage faizleri y\u00fcksek kald\u0131k\u00e7a talebin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, konutla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 varl\u0131klarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n risk ve sterlinde dalgalanma anlam\u0131na gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Bankan\u0131n 2025 1. \u00e7eyrek Kredi Ko\u015fullar\u0131 Anketi, enerji \u015foku kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kredi talebi konusunda fazla iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu kez Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k 2025 sonunda \u201cteknik resesyon\u201ddan (iki \u00e7eyrek \u00fcst \u00fcste daralma) yeni \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015fken ve \u015eubat 2026 GSYH %0,1 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma g\u00f6stermi\u015fken, iyimserli\u011fin temkinli olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme senaryolar\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin faiz swaplar\u0131nda (swap: taraflar\u0131n faiz \u00f6demelerini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sabit faiz \u00f6deyip de\u011fi\u015fken faiz almak. (Fixed \u00f6demek, faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisinde tercih edilir.)<\/p>\n
Bu hafta, bir sonraki toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi sessiz d\u00f6nemden \u00f6nce BoE \u00fcyelerinden art arda konu\u015fmalar gelecek. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Vali Bailey faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerine kar\u015f\u0131 dururken, piyasa \u015fimdi y\u0131l sonuna kadar 50 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde faiz indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor. Beklenenden daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir ton, SONIA vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (SONIA futures: \u0130ngiltere gecelik faizine dayal\u0131 faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131; faiz beklentilerini yans\u0131t\u0131r) yeniden fiyatlamaya yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Mart 2026\u2019daki son toplant\u0131da iki MPC \u00fcyesi Swati Dhingra ve Dave Ramsden\u2019\u0131n faiz indirimi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy vermesinin ard\u0131ndan \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (dovish: b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek i\u00e7in daha gev\u015fek politika yanl\u0131s\u0131) sinyaller izlenecek. Bu, kurul i\u00e7inde ne zaman gev\u015femeye ba\u015flanaca\u011f\u0131na dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir \u00fcyenin de g\u00fcvercin tarafa kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faret, yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan veri, Mart 2026 T\u00dcFE (CPI: T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) enflasyon raporu olacak; \u015eubat\u2019taki %3,4 seviyesi h\u00e2l\u00e2 %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde. Ayr\u0131ca BRC\u2019nin Mart perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi, t\u00fcketicinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kritik; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ONS (\u0130ngiltere Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi) verileri perakende hacimlerinin yatay oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu iki veriden birinde zay\u0131fl\u0131k, daha erken faiz indirimi beklentisini peki\u015ftirerek k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil getirilerini (yield: tahvil faizi) etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ngiltere\u2019de konut ve t\u00fcketim zay\u0131fl\u0131yor: RICS talep k\u0131r\u0131lgan, mortgage maliyetleri y\u00fcksek. BoE \u00fcyelerinin son konu\u015fmalar\u0131 \u201csessiz d\u00f6nem\u201d \u00f6ncesi kritik. CPI\/BRC s\u00fcrprizi, sterlin ve faiz fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 sert oynatabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44479","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44479"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44479\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}