ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin anla\u015fma olmadan sona ermesinin ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. ICE Brent erken i\u015flemlerde %9\u2019dan fazla artt\u0131, NYMEX WTI ise 105 dolar\/varil seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD ordusu, Washington saatiyle Pazartesi 10:00\u2019dan itibaren \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giren ve \u00e7\u0131kan deniz trafi\u011fine abluka uygulamay\u0131 planl\u0131yor. Ancak \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na u\u011framayan gemilerin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131lan kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) ge\u00e7i\u015fine yine izin verilecek.<\/p>\n
Avrupa do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 da y\u00fckseldi. En yak\u0131n vadeli TTF vadeli i\u015flemleri (Hollanda merkezli Avrupa do\u011fal gaz referans fiyat\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131k %18 artarak g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 51 euro\/MWh seviyesinin \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma alt\u0131nc\u0131 haftas\u0131na girerken, yak\u0131n vadeli arz (piyasaya k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede ula\u015fabilecek tedarik) endi\u015feleri artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Spek\u00fclatif pozisyonlarda (k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 ama\u00e7l\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131mlar) farkl\u0131 g\u00f6stergelerde farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nler izlendi. ICE Brent\u2019te net uzun pozisyonlar (al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n sat\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlara g\u00f6re net fark\u0131) 5.583 lot d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 424.270 lota indi; br\u00fct uzunlar (toplam al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar) da 4.525 lot azald\u0131.<\/p>\n
NYMEX WTI\u2019da net uzunlar haftal\u0131k bazda 7.121 lot art\u0131\u015fla 137.838 lota \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Veriler ge\u00e7en Sal\u0131 itibar\u0131yla raporland\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de sondaj faaliyeti sabit kald\u0131. Baker Hughes verilerine g\u00f6re 10 Nisan itibar\u0131yla petrol sondaj kulesi say\u0131s\u0131 (aktif petrol kuyusu a\u00e7ma ekipman\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131, \u00fcretim e\u011filimine dair g\u00f6sterge) 411\u2019de de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Toplam kule say\u0131s\u0131 ise 3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 545\u2019e geriledi; bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re 38 kule daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 beklenen OPEC\u2019in ayl\u0131k raporunu izliyor. Raporda arz-talep dengesi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne (piyasada \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketimin nas\u0131l \u015fekillendi\u011fine) ili\u015fkin g\u00fcncelleme bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol 105 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015fken, en yak\u0131n vadede \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan strateji oynakl\u0131k (fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00fczerine pozisyon almak. Straddle veya strangle (opsiyon stratejileri: fiyat yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sert hareket ederse kazan\u00e7 hedefler; biri ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, di\u011feri farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonu kombinasyonlar\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Opsiyon primi (opsiyonu almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) y\u00fcksek olur; ancak gerilimin aniden d\u00fc\u015fmesi riski de, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski kadar ger\u00e7ek.<\/p>\n
Brent ile WTI vadeli fiyatlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma, fiyat fark\u0131na (spread: iki kontrat\/\u00fcr\u00fcn aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131) y\u00f6nelik bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. ABD ablukas\u0131, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan ham petrol\u00fc do\u011frudan tehdit etti\u011fi i\u00e7in Brent\u2019in primi (Brent\u2019in WTI\u2019a g\u00f6re daha pahal\u0131 i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi) artabilir. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol ge\u00e7ti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, bu risk sadece \u0130ran\u2019a de\u011fil k\u00fcresel arza y\u00f6nelik.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentisi olanlar i\u00e7in Brent\u2019te May\u0131s ve Haziran vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) y\u00fcksek seviyelere ra\u011fmen tercih edilebilir. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyet i\u00e7in call spread (bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satma; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr, kazanc\u0131 belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131n\u0131rlar) kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Arz taraf\u0131ndaki tablo k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor; olas\u0131 bir abluka, \u0130ran\u2019dan g\u00fcnde 1,5 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde ham petrol\u00fc piyasadan \u00e7ekebilir. ABD\u2019nin bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zla kapatmas\u0131 beklenmez; sondaj kulesi say\u0131s\u0131 411\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Sistemde yedek kapasitenin (talep art\u0131nca h\u0131zla devreye al\u0131nabilecek ek \u00fcretim) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131, kesintilerin fiyat etkisini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de Husilerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n (nakliye g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve rota riskleri) ham petrole ekledi\u011fi risk priminin (jeopolitik belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyata eklenen pay) \u00fczerine biniyor. Avrupa do\u011fal gaz\u0131ndaki e\u015f zamanl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f, bunun sadece petrol de\u011fil daha geni\u015f bir enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi sorunu oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket edebilmek \u00f6nemli; Washington veya Tahran\u2019dan gelecek ba\u015fl\u0131klar k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert fiyat hareketleri yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik tansiyon alev ald\u0131: ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri sonu\u00e7suz, petrol ralli yapt\u0131. Brent %9\u2019u a\u015ft\u0131, WTI 105 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde. \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na olas\u0131 ABD ablukas\u0131 ve gazdaki %18 s\u0131\u00e7rama arz endi\u015fesini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44477","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44477"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44477\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}