Deutsche Bank ekonomistleri, Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed \u2014 ABD merkez bankas\u0131) mart ay\u0131nda faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini, hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Buna ra\u011fmen eyl\u00fclde 25 baz puan (faizin %0,25 d\u00fc\u015fmesi) indirim beklemeye devam ediyorlar.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gev\u015feme (faiz indirimleri) bekledi\u011fini, y\u0131l sonuna kadar fiyatlamaya yakla\u015f\u0131k 6 baz puan girdi\u011fini belirttiler. Bu da faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %24\u2019e denk geldi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden d\u00fcnyaya petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi dar ge\u00e7it) uzun s\u00fcre ablukaya al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n Brent petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundular. B\u00f6yle bir enerji \u015fokunun (petrol\/do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131) enflasyonu etkileyebilece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de enflasyon %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Tahminlerine g\u00f6re 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %2,5 ve 2026 enflasyonu %3,4.<\/p>\n
Daha zay\u0131f i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n (istihdam\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131) faiz indirimini destekleyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylediler. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon y\u00fckseli\u015finin ise faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini de eklediler.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in ge\u00e7en ay faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131yla piyasa bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi ihtimalini yaln\u0131zca %24 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n biz eyl\u00fclde \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) indirim tahminimizi koruyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (future \u2014 ileri tarihte faiz oran\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa eyl\u00fcldeki faiz indirimi beklentimizi tam yans\u0131tm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndaki son istihdam verisi, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n (non-farm payrolls \u2014 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f) 145 bine yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda zay\u0131flama ihtimalini destekliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesinden fayda sa\u011flayacak pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ana riski, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 bir ablukas\u0131 ve bunun Brent petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolara ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131. Son denizcilik raporlar\u0131 b\u00f6lgede deniz kuvvetleri faaliyetinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu nedenle risk somut. 2025 ortas\u0131ndaki gerilimlerde benzer ama daha hafif bir durumda petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli %18 s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Kal\u0131c\u0131 bir petrol fiyat \u015foku, ABD enflasyonu zaten %3,3 seviyesindeyken Fed\u2019in i\u015fini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 so\u011fusa bile merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 indirimleri ertelemeye, hatta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme almaya itebilir. Bu nedenle petrolde uzun vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option \u2014 belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak veya enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019leriyle (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) pozisyon almak, bu b\u00fcy\u00fck riske kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu z\u0131t etkiler nedeniyle piyasalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite \u2014 fiyat hareketlerinin \u015fiddeti) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. VIX endeksi (S&P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d, beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 15 civar\u0131nda seyrederken opsiyonlar pahal\u0131 de\u011fil. B\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak; sert hareketten yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler) gibi stratejilerle uzun oynakl\u0131k pozisyonu kurmak, Fed\u2019in y\u00f6n\u00fc netle\u015fti\u011finde piyasan\u0131n keskin hareket etmesi olas\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in kazan\u00e7l\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed sabit kald\u0131 ama Deutsche Bank eyl\u00fclde 25 bp indirimde \u0131srarc\u0131: piyasa yaln\u0131z %24 olas\u0131l\u0131k fiyatl\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131 Brent\u2019i 120$\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131p enflasyonu azd\u0131rabilir; volatilite f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44476"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44476\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}