EUR\/USD, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7en haftaki 1,1740 civar\u0131ndaki zirvesinden geriledi ancak 1,1670\u2019in \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 ve 1,1700\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131. Parite, Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 1,1670 civar\u0131ndaki dipten toparland\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesi sonras\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; bu da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi. Euro\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken EUR\/USD 1,17\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcn\u00fcn ekonomik takvimi sakin; bu nedenle \u0130ran\u2019dan gelecek haberler fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc, 30 Nisan\u2019daki bir sonraki para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ECB (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD, 1,1630 \u00fczerinde yatay seyrederken hafif y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini korudu. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131p yakla\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren teknik g\u00f6sterge) 50\u2019li seviyelerin ortas\u0131nda kald\u0131. MACD (iki hareketli ortalama aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 izleyen ve momentum y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) s\u0131f\u0131r \u00e7izgisine yak\u0131n seyretti.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7 (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 1,1725\u20131,1735 band\u0131nda; ard\u0131ndan 1,1825 ve 1,1930 civar\u0131 izleniyor. Destek (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 1,1670; ard\u0131ndan 1,1630\u20131,1640 ve 1,1590 civar\u0131nda y\u00fckselen trend deste\u011fi bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019de tan\u0131d\u0131k bir yatay s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ge\u00e7en y\u0131l nisan ay\u0131ndaki H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 gerilim \u00f6ncesini and\u0131r\u0131yor. Piyasa, arka plandaki jeopolitik risklere ra\u011fmen fazla sakin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma seviyesi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Cboe EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ: euro\/dolar i\u00e7in beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) yakla\u015f\u0131k 6,8 seviyesinde. Bu tablo, piyasan\u0131n sert bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu rehavet nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n alman\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n daha \u00e7ok dalgalanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle pozisyon almak) daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u201cAt-the-money\u201d uzun straddle (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spot fiyata yak\u0131n al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu ayn\u0131 anda alma; fiyat g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 giderse kazan\u00e7 hedefler) stratejisi, gerilimin aniden azalmas\u0131 ya da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesi gibi iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert hareketlerden faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasan\u0131n sakinlik bekledi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde daha uygundur; daha \u00f6nce petrol 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramadan hemen \u00f6nce benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 da izleniyor; \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n) veya \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha uzak, gev\u015fek politika yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir s\u00fcrpriz mevcut s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bozabilir. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131na (OIS: politika faizine dair beklentileri yans\u0131tan k\u0131sa vadeli faiz t\u00fcrevleri) g\u00f6re Fed\u2019den 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %70 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ancak beklenmedik bir \u201cpas ge\u00e7me\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmama) karar\u0131 dolar\u0131 h\u0131zla zay\u0131flatabilir. Merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu politika fark\u0131 parite i\u00e7in temel tetikleyici olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olanlar i\u00e7in, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen teknik seviyeler yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f i\u015flemlerde (ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta k\u00e2r\/zarar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha net tan\u0131mlanan opsiyon kurgular\u0131) referans olabilir. 1,1750 direncinin \u00fczerinde \u201ccall spread\u201d (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklenti i\u00e7in iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu ile maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) almak, yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmaya daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle oynama imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir. 1,1650 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan sat\u0131m opsiyonu) ise korunma (hedge: olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama) ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullan\u0131labilir. CME euro opsiyonlar\u0131nda put\/call oran\u0131 (sat\u0131m\/al\u0131m opsiyonu hacmi; piyasan\u0131n y\u00f6n e\u011filimini g\u00f6sterir) 0,92 seviyesinde; bu hafif y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine i\u015faret ederken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kanaat olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen petrol-dolar ili\u015fkisi \u00f6nemini koruyor. Brent petrol son bir ayda %8 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da k\u00fcresel enflasyon beklentileri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Jeopolitik gerilimin artmas\u0131 petrol\u00fc daha da yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; bu durumda dolar \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk art\u0131nca talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir ve EUR\/USD son destek seviyelerinin alt\u0131na sarkabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik gerilim EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,17 alt\u0131nda bask\u0131l\u0131yor: \u0130ran-H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskiyle Brent 100$+ ve dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Takvim sakin; Lagarde\/Fed belirleyici. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131kta straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Destek 1,1670.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44473\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}