AUD\/USD, pazartesi 0,6990\u2019dan toparlanarak 0,7055 civar\u0131ndaki \u00f6nceki fiyat bo\u015flu\u011funu (gap: piyasa kapal\u0131yken fiyat\u0131n atlayarak a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla grafikte olu\u015fan bo\u015f alan) kapatt\u0131 ancak 0,7060\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmakta zorland\u0131. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) zay\u0131flamas\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ek y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump, Truth Social\u2019da ABD Donanmas\u0131na \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giren ya da \u00e7\u0131kan herhangi bir gemiyi engelleme talimat\u0131 verdi\u011fini; bunun da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatma planlar\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Bu ad\u0131m, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 olan \u00c7in\u2019e giden petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyerek (petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layarak) ilerideki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri etkileme amac\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici durmas\u0131) s\u00fcrerken, \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 yabanc\u0131 donanma gemilerinin ate\u015fkesi ihlal say\u0131labilece\u011fi ve \u201csert \u015fekilde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verilece\u011fi\u201d uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Bu tablo, g\u00fcvenli liman (belirsizlikte tercih edilen) ABD Dolar\u0131na talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD veri takvimi pazartesi sakin. Dikkat, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan mart T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n genel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) verisinin ard\u0131ndan sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak mart \u00dcFE\u2019ye (PPI: \u00fcretici fiyat endeksi, \u00fcretim a\u015famas\u0131ndaki fiyatlar\u0131n genel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. \u00dcFE\u2019nin, 2026\u2019da en az bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini desteklemesi bekleniyor. (Fed: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131; faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131: bor\u00e7lanma maliyetini y\u00fckseltir, genelde dolar\u0131 destekler.)<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019da sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Westpac T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni (hanelerin ekonomik beklentisi) enerji \u015fokunun etkisini g\u00f6sterebilir. Hafta ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak mart istihdam verisi, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem politika beklentilerine \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutacak.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatma plan\u0131 ciddi belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor; bu nedenle AUD\/USD 0,7060 \u00e7evresinde zorlan\u0131yor. Bu jeopolitik gerilim piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131rd\u0131; VIX endeksi (piyasa korku endeksi, S&P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) 16\u2019dan 24\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, opsiyon primlerinin (opsiyonun pe\u015fin maliyeti) belirgin \u015fekilde pahalanmas\u0131 demek; piyasadaki risk alg\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte biri H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7ti\u011fi i\u00e7in, ger\u00e7ek bir kesinti sert bir enerji fiyat \u015foku yarat\u0131r. 2019\u2019daki gerilim d\u00f6neminde daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olsa da benzer bir petrol fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da durumun k\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu etki, bu haftaki ABD \u00dcFE gibi enflasyon verilerine yans\u0131r ve Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 gerek\u00e7esini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir.<\/p>\n
Avustralya dolar\u0131 \u00f6zellikle hassas; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6stergesi (proxy: dolayl\u0131 g\u00f6sterge) gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr ve \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131d\u0131r. Bu ad\u0131m \u00c7in\u2019i hedefledi\u011finden, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerinden ekonomik etkiler a\u011f\u0131r olabilir. Ayr\u0131ca veriler, \u00c7in\u2019de mart ay\u0131nda imalat faaliyetinin (fabrika \u00fcretimi) zaten yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu zay\u0131flama Avustralya ihracat\u0131na talebi de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Bu ko\u015fullarda AUD\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften ve oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. AUD\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in pozisyon alma yoludur; ancak artan oynakl\u0131k nedeniyle maliyeti y\u00fcksektir. Piyasa \u015fu anda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde fiyatlarken, RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz yolu belirsiz. Bu haftaki Avustralya t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ve istihdam verilerinde zay\u0131fl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, Avustralya dolar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi t\u0131rman\u0131rken AUD\/USD gap\u2019i kapat\u0131p 0,7060\u2019ta tak\u0131ld\u0131: risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131f, USD talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. VIX s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, opsiyonlar pahal\u0131. G\u00f6zler ABD \u00dcFE\u2019si ile Avustralya g\u00fcven\/istihdam verilerinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44470","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44470","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44470"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44470\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44470"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44470"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44470"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}