{"id":44469,"date":"2026-04-13T15:21:57","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T15:21:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/commerzbank-iranin-renminbi-planlari-ve-artan-gerilimlere-ragmen-abd-dolarinin-ticaret-ve-rezervlerdeki-hakimiyeti-suruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-13T15:21:57","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T15:21:57","slug":"commerzbank-iranin-renminbi-planlari-ve-artan-gerilimlere-ragmen-abd-dolarinin-ticaret-ve-rezervlerdeki-hakimiyeti-suruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/commerzbank-iranin-renminbi-planlari-ve-artan-gerilimlere-ragmen-abd-dolarinin-ticaret-ve-rezervlerdeki-hakimiyeti-suruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Commerzbank: \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n renminbi planlar\u0131 ve artan gerilimlere ra\u011fmen ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ticaret ve rezervlerdeki hakimiyeti s\u00fcr\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Commerzbank\u2019\u0131n D\u00f6viz ve Emtia Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Ba\u015fkan\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Renminbi (\u00c7in para birimi) ile \u201cge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti\u201d (toll) planlar\u0131na ve daha geni\u015f jeopolitik (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 siyasi) gerilimlere ra\u011fmen ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (USD) k\u00fcresel ticaret ve rezervlerde (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n tuttu\u011fu d\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131) ana para birimi olmaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. USD, yaln\u0131zca ABD ile ticarette de\u011fil, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin kendi aralar\u0131ndaki ticarette de yayg\u0131n bi\u00e7imde kullan\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Dolar\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6deme sistemlerindeki pay\u0131n\u0131n, ABD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel ticaretteki pay\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu belirtti. Bu durum, Dolar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi i\u015flemlerde \u201cara para\u201d (iki taraf\u0131n da kabul etti\u011fi ortak de\u011fi\u015fim paras\u0131) olarak kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Ticaret ve \u00d6demelerde Dolar\u0131n \u00dcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz rezervlerindeki pay\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015f geriledi\u011fini; 2000\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u2019ten son d\u00f6nemde %60\u2019\u0131n biraz alt\u0131na indi\u011fini kaydetti. Geleneksel olmayan para birimlerinin kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na da de\u011findi.<\/p>\n

Bu de\u011fi\u015fimin temel olarak ekonomik nedenlerden de\u011fil, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar (devletlerin ticaret\/finans k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131) ve di\u011fer siyasi ad\u0131mlardan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar olmasa USD\u2019den uzakla\u015fmak i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir neden olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir\u00e7ok kullan\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 bu para birimiyle i\u015flem yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda belirleyici unsurun ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131sal (kal\u0131c\u0131 ve sistemden gelen) \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu nedenle belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re pozisyon almak i\u00e7in uygun zaman de\u011fil. Mart 2026\u2019ya ait SWIFT verileri (uluslararas\u0131 para transfer a\u011f\u0131), dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel \u00f6demelerin %47\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131nda kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran ABD\u2019nin d\u00fcnya ticaretindeki pay\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k ara a\u015f\u0131yor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u201ca\u011f etkisi\u201d (\u00e7ok ki\u015fi kulland\u0131k\u00e7a daha cazip hale gelme) para birimi i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir destek olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

Dolar\u0131n rezerv para stat\u00fcs\u00fcndeki kademeli a\u015f\u0131nma uzun vadeli ve bilinen bir e\u011filim; k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem stratejilerini belirlememeli. IMF\u2019nin (Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu) 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek verileri, dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel rezervlerdeki pay\u0131n\u0131 %57,9 olarak g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz %58,8\u2019e g\u00f6re \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir gerileme. Bu yava\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir ekonomik \u201cdolar\u0131 terk\u201d e\u011filiminden ziyade, az say\u0131daki \u00fclkenin siyasi ama\u00e7l\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ve Oynakl\u0131k \u0130\u00e7in Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\n

\u201cT\u00fcrev\u201d (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, dolara kar\u015f\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00f6n bahisinden ziyade oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) odaklanmay\u0131 ima ediyor. Yerel para birimleriyle ticaret anla\u015fmalar\u0131 gibi jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilmelere yol a\u00e7abilir; bu t\u00fcr d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ge\u00e7mi\u015fte \u00e7o\u011fu zaman al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 oldu. EUR\/USD gibi maj\u00f6r paritelerde k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanan opsiyon stratejileri (belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), dolar aleyhine do\u011frudan \u201ck\u0131sa\u201d pozisyona (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f) g\u00f6re daha etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n

Bu siyasi kaymadan faydalanan para birimlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerde likiditenin (kolay al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yap\u0131labilmesi) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6zellikle offshore \u00c7in Renminbisi CNH\u2019de (\u00c7in ana karas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren yuan). \u00d6rne\u011fin CNH vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon hacimleri, 2025\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz yapt\u0131r\u0131m geni\u015flemelerinden bu yana istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseldi. Bu, belirli akt\u00f6rlerin taktiksel (k\u0131sa vadeli\/ama\u00e7 odakl\u0131) hamlesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor; dolar\u0131n verimli, derin (y\u00fcksek i\u015flem hacimli) ve h\u00e2l\u00e2 e\u015fi olmayan sistemine temel bir meydan okuma de\u011fil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jeopolitik gerilimler artsa da dolar\u0131n taht\u0131 sallanm\u0131yor: SWIFT\u2019te \u00f6demelerin %47\u2019si, rezervlerin %57,9\u2019u USD. Yava\u015f a\u015f\u0131nma siyasi; kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bahsi yerine oynakl\u0131k stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44469","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44469"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44469\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44469"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44469"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44469"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}