Macaristan\u2019daki parlamento se\u00e7iminde P\u00e9ter Magyar\u2019\u0131n merkez sa\u011f, AB yanl\u0131s\u0131 Tisza partisi, Viktor Orb\u00e1n\u2019\u0131n milliyet\u00e7i Fidesz\u2019ini ma\u011flup etti. \u0130lk sonu\u00e7lara g\u00f6re 199 sandalyeli parlamentoda \u00fc\u00e7te iki \u00e7o\u011funluk beklenirken, Orb\u00e1n yenilgiyi kabul etti.<\/p>\n
Kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 rekor seviyede %77,8 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131; bir \u00f6nceki parlamento se\u00e7iminde bu oran %67,8\u2019di. Sonu\u00e7, Macaristan\u2019\u0131n AB\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki yedi y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7esi ve Ukrayna\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik yard\u0131m paketleriyle ilgili g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri engellemesi veya geciktirmesi endi\u015felerini azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 Forint g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; EUR\/HUF %2\u2019den fazla gerileyerek \u015eubat 2022\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Bu hareket, piyasalar\u0131n talep etti\u011fi \u201csiyasi risk primi\u201dnin (\u00fclkenin siyasetinden kaynaklanan ek risk i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n kur ve faizlerde istedi\u011fi ilave pay) d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle ili\u015fkilendirildi.<\/p>\n
Orb\u00e1n\u2019\u0131n eski m\u00fcttefiki olan Magyar, AB ve NATO ile g\u00fcveni yeniden in\u015fa etmeyi, \u201chukukun \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\u201dn\u00fc (devletin ve kurumlar\u0131n keyfi de\u011fil, yasalarla ba\u011fl\u0131 olmas\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeyi ve 2030\u2019a kadar euro b\u00f6lgesine kat\u0131lmay\u0131 kampanyas\u0131n\u0131n merkezine koydu. Ancak Orb\u00e1n\u2019\u0131n genel \u00e7izgisinden net bir kopu\u015f ortaya koymad\u0131; Rusya ile ili\u015fkilerde ani bir kesintiyi savunmad\u0131 ve Ukrayna\u2019ya asker\u00ee yard\u0131m verilmesine a\u00e7\u0131k bir destek sunmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l P\u00e9ter Magyar\u2019\u0131n Tisza partisinin net zaferinin ard\u0131ndan d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert bir hareket g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Forint belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fer kazand\u0131; y\u0131llard\u0131r kur \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturan siyasi risk primi zay\u0131flad\u0131. EUR\/HUF se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde %2\u2019den fazla geriledi; bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte bir hareket 2022 ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcnden, 13 Nisan 2026\u2019dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu ilk hareket daha uzun vadeli bir e\u011filimin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 oldu. Forint sonras\u0131nda istikrar kazand\u0131 ve kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc korudu. Merkez bankas\u0131 oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 enflasyona (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) \u00e7evirebildi; ge\u00e7en ayki veriye g\u00f6re enflasyon %3,6\u2019ya geriledi. Bu seviye, birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7ift haneli enflasyondan belirgin bi\u00e7imde farkl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin AB yanl\u0131s\u0131 duru\u015fu, \u00fclkenin bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da olumlu oldu ve bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Macaristan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirileri (tahvil faizi) se\u00e7imden bu yana 150 baz puandan (0,01 puan; 150 baz puan = 1,50 puan) fazla gerileyerek yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,25 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, faiz oranlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (fiyat\u0131 faiz gibi ba\u015fka bir de\u011fi\u015fkene ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) baz\u0131 stratejilerin h\u00e2l\u00e2 cazip olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ana siyasi belirsizlik ge\u00e7en y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ortadan kalk\u0131nca, Forint\u2019te \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011fi kur dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyelere indi. Bu ortam, opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejileri teorik olarak daha kazan\u00e7l\u0131 h\u00e2le getirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201cstrangle\u201d (farkl\u0131 iki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte satarak, kur belirli bir bantta kal\u0131rsa prim geliri hedefleyen opsiyon stratejisi). Benzer bir oynakl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, 2023 sonundaki AB yanl\u0131s\u0131 se\u00e7im sonucunun ard\u0131ndan Polonya zlotisinde de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ancak yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin Rusya ile ili\u015fkilerde ani bir kopu\u015f hedeflemedi\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131. Bu s\u00fcren jeopolitik belirsizlik, Forint\u2019in euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferlenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. B\u00f6lgesel gerilimlerde olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma, son kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc h\u0131zla geri ald\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok geli\u015fme: Macaristan\u2019da AB yanl\u0131s\u0131 Tisza, Orb\u00e1n\u2019\u0131 devirdi. %77,8 kat\u0131l\u0131mla siyasi risk primi d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Forint sert de\u011ferlendi. Enflasyon %3,6, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri ~%5,25\u2019e indi; oynakl\u0131k dipte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44464","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44464"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44464\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44464"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44464"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44464"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}