S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri, \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesiyle geriledi; bu durum k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) bask\u0131lad\u0131. Deutsche Bank stratejistleri, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin anla\u015fma olmadan bitmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n hisse gibi riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131karak nakit, tahvil gibi daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) e\u011filimine dikkat \u00e7ekti. Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giren\/\u00e7\u0131kan gemiler i\u00e7in H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ABD ablukas\u0131 planlar\u0131na at\u0131f yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol +%7,39 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 102,24 dolar\/varil seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da \u201cstagflasyon \u015foku\u201d endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131 (stagflasyon: ekonomi yava\u015flarken enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131). S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri -%0,73, DAX vadeli i\u015flemleri -%1,47 geriledi; Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n enerji \u015fokuna daha a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta oda\u011f\u0131n \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bunun yan\u0131nda 1. \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7o sezonu ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Bu haftaki veriler aras\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok ABD finans \u015firketinin bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Deutsche Bank\u2019\u0131n ABD hisse ekibi, \u015firket bazl\u0131 (bottom-up: \u015firketlerin tek tek de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi) analist beklentilerinin S&P 500 k\u00e2rlar\u0131nda %16 ile orta-\u00e7ift haneli art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti\u011fini ve bunun makro ko\u015fullarla desteklendi\u011fini belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6neminde, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli teknoloji hisseleri (megacap: piyasa de\u011feri \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek \u015firketler) ve finans hisseleri \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Not: Bu yaz\u0131n\u0131n bir Yapay Zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcregelen jeopolitik belirsizlik nedeniyle \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseliyor; VIX 17\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. VIX, piyasadaki beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinir. Bu ortamda, ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ckoruma\u201d (hedge: portf\u00f6y\u00fc olumsuz hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 dengeleme) al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, SPX veya SPY gibi geni\u015f piyasa endekslerinde \u201cput\u201d (sat\u0131m hakk\u0131: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) alarak portf\u00f6ylerini olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korumay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
Enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc izlenmeye devam ediyor; Brent petrol 90 dolar\/varil civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen 102 dolarl\u0131k panik seviyesinde olmasa da bu fiyatlar enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutabilir ve di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rleri zorlayabilir. Enerji ETF\u2019lerinde \u201ccall\u201d (al\u0131m hakk\u0131: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) opsiyonlar\u0131, gerilim artar ve petrol fiyat\u0131 y\u00fckselirse do\u011frudan getiri arac\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak bug\u00fcn k\u00e2r g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, 2025\u2019teki iyimserlikten farkl\u0131. Mevcut 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek piyasa tahminleri, S&P 500 k\u00e2r art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %4-5 ile daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck beklenti, \u015firketlerin olumlu s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131n\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Bu nedenle baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bilan\u00e7olar \u00f6ncesinde temel g\u00f6stergeleri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015firketlerde \u201cnakit teminatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (cash-secured put: olas\u0131 al\u0131m i\u00e7in gerekli nakdi ay\u0131rarak put satmak) stratejisini de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te oldu\u011fu gibi bilan\u00e7o sezonu b\u00fcy\u00fck finans \u015firketleriyle ba\u015fl\u0131yor; bu \u015firketler \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar\u0131n havas\u0131n\u0131 belirleyebilir. Sonu\u00e7lar, \u00f6zellikle kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve \u201ckredi zararlar\u0131\u201d (geri \u00f6denmeme ihtimali nedeniyle ayr\u0131lan zarar) beklentileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ekonominin sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair \u00f6nemli sinyaller verecek. \u201cTan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli\u201d (defined-risk: maksimum zarar ba\u015ftan belli) bir strateji olan \u201ciron condor\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kullanarak bant i\u00e7inde kalmaya oynayan \u00e7ok bacakl\u0131 strateji) finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde, bilan\u00e7o sonras\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik ate\u015f piyasay\u0131 sard\u0131: \u0130ran gerilimi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskiyle Brent %7,4 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, stagflasyon korkusu artt\u0131. S&P 500\/DAX geriledi, VIX 17\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131; hedge ve bilan\u00e7olar odakta.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44462","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44462"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44462\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44462"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44462"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44462"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}