EUR\/GBP pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 25 pip gibi dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 0,8695 ile 0,8725 aras\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve 0,8700 civar\u0131nda seyretti. ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasa havas\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte kald\u0131 ve oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgalanma e\u011filimi) g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (k\u00fcresel petrol sevkiyat\u0131nda kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) kapat\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik mesajlar\u0131 Euro\u2019daki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey ile Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmalar\u0131 pariteyi etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Parite hafif yukar\u0131 e\u011filimini korudu ancak momentum (fiyat hareketinin g\u00fcc\u00fc) zay\u0131fl\u0131yordu. 4 saatlik RSI 50\u2019ye yak\u0131nd\u0131; RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) denge b\u00f6lgesini i\u015faret ediyor. MACD ise s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n biraz \u00fczerindeydi; MACD (hareketli ortalamalar fark\u0131na dayal\u0131 trend g\u00f6stergesi) net bir y\u00f6n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyordu.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7 0,8722\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, bir sonraki seviyeler nisan zirvesi b\u00f6lgesi olan 0,8740 ve y\u0131l i\u00e7i en y\u00fcksek seviye 0,8789. Destek 0,8705 civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 0,8687; daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 0,8635 seviyesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Raporda, teknik analizde bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131ndan yararlan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. 13 Nisan 11:40 GMT\u2019de yap\u0131lan d\u00fczeltme, \u00e7ar\u015famba yerine sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc konu\u015fmalar\u0131n daha \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde EUR\/GBP paritesinin 0,8700 \u00e7evresinde karars\u0131z kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Jeopolitik gerilimler piyasay\u0131 tedirgin ederken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar merkez bankas\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmelerini (faiz ve politika mesajlar\u0131) bekliyordu. Bu sakinlik, sonras\u0131nda gelen sert hareketlerin habercisi olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen doji mumlar\u0131 (a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f ve kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n birbirine \u00e7ok yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu, karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren mum formasyonu) bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali verdi ve parite sonraki haftalarda sert \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rd\u0131. BoE, 2025 yaz\u0131 boyunca enflasyona daha \u201csert\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (faizi daha y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) ECB\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha fazla korudu; bu da pariteyi a\u011fustosta 0,8550 seviyesinin testine y\u00f6neltti. Tarihsel veriler, merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n (iki bankan\u0131n farkl\u0131 faiz\/politika \u00e7izgisi izlemesi) genelde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc trendlerden \u00f6nce geldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. 2025 sonlar\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere enflasyonunun 3,1 ile daha inat\u00e7\u0131 (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen) kalmas\u0131, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin 2,5 seviyesine gerilemesine k\u0131yasla bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn benzer bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor, ancak bu kez 0,8620 \u00e7evresinde. Euro B\u00f6lgesi 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin zay\u0131f bir %0,1 gelmesi ve \u0130ngiltere ekonomisinin beklenenden dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kalmas\u0131, Euro \u00fczerindeki temel bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lla bu benzerlik, sakin piyasan\u0131n aldat\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ak\u0131ldayken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 0,8600 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na (strike, opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi fiyat) sahip sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put, belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu, 2025\u2019teki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn tekrar\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge, olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama) sa\u011flar. Bu sigortan\u0131n maliyeti, opsiyon primiyle (premium, opsiyon i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
EUR\/GBP opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility, opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) \u015fu anda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve %6,2 civar\u0131nda; bu oran be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Bu durum, ay\u0131 put spread\u2019i (bear put spread: daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put satmak; maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi stratejisi) gibi y\u00f6ntemleri cazip k\u0131labilir. B\u00f6ylece ba\u015ftaki maliyet azal\u0131rken kurda orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 korunur. Bu, 0,8500 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (en k\u00f6t\u00fc zarar \u00f6nceden belli) pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Ancak 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ECB mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n piyasay\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131. Bu nedenle stratejiler esnek olmal\u0131. Opsiyonlar, k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc (ge\u00e7ici dalgalanmalar) nedeniyle hemen pozisyondan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmadan (stop olmak) y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar; bu yakla\u015f\u0131m ge\u00e7en y\u0131l faydal\u0131 olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sessiz g\u00f6r\u00fcnen EUR\/GBP\u2019te f\u0131rt\u0131na \u00f6ncesi sinyal mi? Parite 0,8695\u20130,8725\u2019te s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; jeopolitik riskler ve petrol Euro\u2019yu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. BoE\/ECB konu\u015fmalar\u0131 kritik; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite put spread\u2019i cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44460","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44460"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44460\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44460"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44460"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44460"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}