Avustralya Dolar\u0131 pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti. Avrupa seans\u0131nda, \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar telafi ettikten sonra ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 0,7050 civar\u0131nda %0,2 geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ilk turunun sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Bu durum petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,6\u2019dan fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 6.760 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Pakistan\u2019daki kal\u0131c\u0131 ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde anla\u015fma sa\u011flanamad\u0131. \u0130ran, n\u00fckleer tesis kurma planlar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7ece\u011fi iddialar\u0131n\u0131 reddetti.<\/p>\n
Yenilenen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebi destekledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) %0,25 art\u0131\u015fla 99,00 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n mart ay\u0131 istihdam raporunu bekliyor. \u0130stihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 20 bin olmas\u0131, \u015fubattaki 48,9 bine g\u00f6re yava\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ise %4,3\u2019te sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc mart \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (PPI: \u00fcreticilerin sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimi, maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon verisi) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Man\u015fet PPI\u2019\u0131n (toplam veri) ayl\u0131k bazda %1,2 artmas\u0131, \u00f6nceki %0,7\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131yla piyasada tipik bir \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (risk-off: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) hareketi izleniyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (dalgal\u0131 d\u00f6nemde daha az riskli g\u00f6r\u00fclen) ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nlendirerek Avustralya Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kuruyor. S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de genel risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bozuldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Avustralya istihdam verisi \u00f6ncesinde AUD\/USD paritesinde (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 fiyat\u0131) oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde beklentiden zay\u0131f gelen bir istihdam raporu Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 dakikalar i\u00e7inde yar\u0131m sentten fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu hafta 20 binlik art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kal\u0131nmas\u0131, AUD\/USD\u2019yi yeni dip seviyelere itebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi verisi de ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli. Y\u00fcksek bir veri, \u00f6zellikle ayl\u0131k %1,2\u2019lik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc beklentiyi a\u015farsa, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret eder. Bu durum, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutma ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirece\u011fi i\u00e7in ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan beklenen dalgalanma) artmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu, VIX endeksinde (piyasadaki korku\/oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) 2025\u2019teki jeopolitik gerilimlerde 17\u2019den 21\u2019in \u00fczerine g\u00f6r\u00fclen s\u0131\u00e7ramaya benzer olabilir. Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019nda \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (long: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nan pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131yanlar, ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 AUD\/USD\u2019de \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) alarak \u201chedge\u201d (riskten korunma) yapmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu opsiyonlar, yakla\u015fan veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik nedeniyle AUD\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak iki y\u00f6nde sert hareketten k\u00e2r hedefleyen strateji) almak da istihdam verisini oynamak i\u00e7in bir se\u00e7enek olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, veri beklentinin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde ya da \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda gelse de, her iki y\u00f6nde b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden yararlanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar. Piyasan\u0131n etkinlik i\u00e7in 40 piplik (pip: d\u00f6vizde en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck fiyat ad\u0131m\u0131) bir hareketi fiyatl\u0131yor olmas\u0131, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir dalga ihtimalini hafife al\u0131yor olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik gerilim tetikledi, piyasada risk-off: AUD\/USD 0,7050\u2019ye yak\u0131n %0,2 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; DXY 99,00\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. G\u00f6zler Avustralya istihdam\u0131 ve ABD PPI\u2019da; oynakl\u0131k artabilir, hedge\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44459"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44459\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}