USD\/JPY haftaya yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bullish) bir fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fuyla (gap: piyasa kapal\u0131yken olu\u015fan ve a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta fiyat\u0131n \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015ftan farkl\u0131 seviyeden ba\u015flamas\u0131) ba\u015flad\u0131, ancak y\u00fckseli\u015f devam etmedi ve Avrupa seans\u0131nda 160,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Destekleyici piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnd\u00fcr yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi koruyor.<\/p>\n
Yen, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan gerilime ba\u011fl\u0131 ekonomik endi\u015feler nedeniyle zay\u0131flad\u0131. Endi\u015feler aras\u0131nda, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2011\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ablukaya almaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesiyle, bo\u011faz \u00e7evresinde olas\u0131 aksama riski yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2011\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 saatlik m\u00fczakerenin ard\u0131ndan somut sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmadan bitti. L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki s\u00fcren \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 da riski art\u0131rd\u0131; bu durum ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselterek enflasyon (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f Japon devlet tahvili getirilerini (tahvil faizi) yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti ve ithal enerji maliyetlerine duyarl\u0131 olan yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD dolar\u0131 da \u201crezerv para\u201d (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ve k\u00fcresel ticaretin yo\u011fun kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 para birimi) olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanan talep sayesinde destek buldu.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu art\u0131rabilece\u011fi endi\u015fesi, daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya\/elevetmeye meyilli) bir Fed beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi ve dolar\u0131 destekledi. Ancak yenin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ad\u0131m atabilece\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylemler USD\/JPY\u2019de daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015fi frenledi.<\/p>\n
Ana dinamik, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor ve Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla bu fark daha da belirgin. Fed\u2019in politika faizi %5,25 seviyesinde bulunurken, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) faizi yeni yeni %0,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. 500 baz puan\u0131n (baz puan: y\u00fczde 0,01) \u00fczerindeki bu fark, \u201cta\u015f\u0131ma getirisi\u201d (carry: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para biriminde getiri arama) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn, 13 Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla parite 159,50 seviyesini yeniden zorluyor. Bunun temel nedeni, son ABD enflasyon verisinin beklentinin \u00fczerinde %3,4 gelmesi ve Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini zay\u0131flatmas\u0131. Bu, 2025\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131na benziyor; ancak bu kez belirli bir enerji \u015fokundan \u00e7ok, i\u00e7 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Piyasa \u015fu anda Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (kur m\u00fcdahalesinden sorumlu ana kurum) ne kadar kararl\u0131 oldu\u011funu yeniden test ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi fiyat) 161,00 ve 162,00 civar\u0131nda USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. Call opsiyonu, belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 verir. Bu strateji, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc temel bask\u0131 s\u00fcrer ve eski zirveler a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar. En \u00f6nemli avantaj\u0131, azami zarar\u0131n \u00f6denen primle (premium: opsiyon i\u00e7in pe\u015fin \u00f6denen bedel) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131d\u0131r; Japon yetkililer yeniden m\u00fcdahale eder ve parite sert d\u00fc\u015ferse bu bir \u201csigorta\u201d g\u00f6revi g\u00f6r\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Daha temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m i\u00e7in \u201cbo\u011fa \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 spreadi\u201d (bull call spread: ayn\u0131 vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 160,00 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call al\u0131p ayn\u0131 anda 162,50 gibi daha y\u00fcksek bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call satarak pozisyonu k\u0131smen finanse edebiliriz. Bu, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini azalt\u0131r, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefler ve bu gergin ortamda riski net \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY haftaya gap\u2019li y\u00fckseli\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131, 160 alt\u0131nda solukland\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi, petrol ve enflasyon dolar lehine. 500bp faiz fark\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemlerini destekliyor; m\u00fcdahale riski s\u00fcrerken 161-162 call veya 160\/162,5 bull spread izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44458","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44458","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44458"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44458\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44458"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44458"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44458"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}