K\u00fcresel piyasalarda, hafta sonu \u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131yla riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD takviminde tek veri, mart ay\u0131 \u0130kinci El Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 (mevcut konutlar\u0131n el de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi) olacak.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u201c\u00e7ok dostane\u201d ge\u00e7ti\u011fini ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019nin ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu \u201cneredeyse her maddeyi\u201d kabul etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi, ancak \u0130ran n\u00fckleer hedeflerinden (n\u00fckleer program\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme) vazge\u00e7me taahh\u00fcd\u00fc vermedi. Trump, iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtirken, ABD ordusunun pazartesi 10:00 EST itibar\u0131yla H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapan t\u00fcm deniz trafi\u011fine abluka (denizden ge\u00e7i\u015fi engelleme) uygulayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Wall Street Journal, Trump ve dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131n ablukaya ek olarak yeniden askeri sald\u0131r\u0131 se\u00e7ene\u011fini de de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini yazd\u0131. Petrol, y\u00fckseli\u015f bo\u015flu\u011fuyla (piyasan\u0131n \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol) 96 dolara yak\u0131n seyrederken g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %6 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD hisse endeksi vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (gelecekteki fiyat \u00fczerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6ren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) %0,6-%0,7 geriledi. Dolar Endeksi (DXY, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7er) %0,3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde artarak 99,00 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. ABD T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) martta y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3\u2019e, \u015fubattaki %2,4\u2019ten y\u00fckseldi; ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE %0,3\u2019ten sonra %0,9 oldu.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n 6 g\u00fcn\u00fcn en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine inerek 4.650 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc, ard\u0131ndan 4.700 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine toparland\u0131. EUR\/USD 1,1700\u2019e yakla\u015farak yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,3 d\u00fc\u015ferken, GBP\/USD 1,3400\u2019\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde ve %0,35 eksideydi.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 159,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. BoJ (Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda, toparlanman\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve enflasyonun hedefe do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Tam bir y\u0131l \u00f6nceki geli\u015fmelere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 etkiledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. WTI ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 96 dolara anl\u0131k %6 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Benzer oynakl\u0131k (fiyatta sert ve h\u0131zl\u0131 dalgalanma) riski yeniden g\u00fcndemde. \u00dcstelik ham petrol stoklar\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta 2,1 milyon varil azalarak arz\u0131 (piyasaya sunulan miktar) zaten s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda; yeni bir aksama olmadan bile tablo daral\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019te hisse vadeli i\u015flemlerine yans\u0131yan riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f, tipik bir piyasa tepkisi olarak yeniden g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Oynakl\u0131k endeksi VIX (ABD borsas\u0131nda beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) \u015fu anda g\u00f6rece sakin 15 civar\u0131nda; bu seviye, korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir f\u0131rsat say\u0131labilir. Jeopolitik gerilim artarsa endeksin s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 muhtemel; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nemde iki g\u00fcnde %25\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte tercih edilen varl\u0131k) rol\u00fc de \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve DXY 99,00\u2019un \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131. Mart enflasyon verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 kal\u0131nca, dolar s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 (faizlerin y\u00fcksek tutulmas\u0131) beklentisiyle destek bulmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu tablo, k\u00fcresel belirsizlikte di\u011fer maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar uzun pozisyonu (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japon yeni, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen dolara kar\u015f\u0131 159,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde ana etken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolard\u0131; ancak daha ciddi bir kriz, geleneksel g\u00fcvenli liman olarak yene y\u00f6nelimi art\u0131rabilir ve carry trade\u2019lerin (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminde bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m) h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019de ani ters harekete kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olmas\u0131 ve opsiyonlarla korunmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u00f6nce sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp sonra 4.700 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine toparlanarak karma\u015f\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiledi. \u0130lk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, zay\u0131f ellerin piyasadan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 (k\u0131sa vadeli pozisyonlar\u0131n tasfiyesi) anlam\u0131na gelmi\u015f olabilir; ard\u0131ndan jeopolitik risk ve y\u00fcksek enflasyonla daha kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f zemini olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Alt\u0131n \u015fu anda ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.550 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, benzer haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131 sinyaliyle jeopolitik risk yeniden fiyatlan\u0131yor: petrol 96 dolara %6 s\u0131\u00e7rarken borsalar geriledi, DXY g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Alt\u0131n dalgal\u0131, yen zay\u0131f; g\u00f6zler ABD konut verisinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44456","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44456"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44456\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}