DBS Group Research, ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019yla ilgili hamlesinin ard\u0131ndan Washington\u2019daki IMF ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 Bahar Toplant\u0131lar\u0131\u2019nda (ilkbahar toplant\u0131lar\u0131) \u201cstagflasyon\u201d (ekonomik durgunlukla birlikte y\u00fcksek enflasyon) risklerinin tart\u0131\u015fmalara y\u00f6n vermesinin beklendi\u011fini bildirdi. Kurum, 14 Nisan\u2019da yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131 beklenen IMF D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm (WEO – IMF\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon tahminlerini i\u00e7eren raporu) raporunda k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fini belirtti. <\/p>\n
Raporda, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019na H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 fiilen ablukaya alma talimat\u0131 verdi\u011fi; \u0130ran\u2019a \u201cg\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f\u201d i\u00e7in \u00fccret \u00f6deyen gemilerin uluslararas\u0131 sularda durduruldu\u011fu ifade edildi. Ayr\u0131ca, Trump\u2019\u0131n 17 Mart\u2019taki konu\u015fmas\u0131na at\u0131f yap\u0131larak NATO ve Asya\u2019daki g\u00fcvenlik ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cbedavac\u0131\u201d olarak nitelendirildi\u011fi ve \u201cy\u00fck payla\u015fmad\u0131klar\u0131\u201d s\u00f6ylendi. <\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re bu ad\u0131m, ABD Y\u00fcksek Mahkemesi\u2019nin Trump\u2019\u0131n Uluslararas\u0131 Acil Ekonomik Yetkiler Yasas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (IEEPA – ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc durumlarda ekonomiyle ilgili yetkiler veren ABD yasas\u0131) geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri (ithal \u00fcr\u00fcnlere uygulanan vergi) i\u00e7in kullanma imkan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131ran karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Kurum, y\u00f6netimin bunun yerine Avrupa ve Asya\u2019daki ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilen \u00fclkelere d\u00f6n\u00fck \u201cenerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi\u201d \u00f6nlemlerini devreye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. <\/p>\n
Asya\u2019n\u0131n, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 sanayi girdilerine (\u00fcretimde kullan\u0131lan ham madde ve ara mal) y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle en \u00e7ok risk alt\u0131nda olabilece\u011fi kaydedildi. IMF Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kristalina Georgieva, 27 \u015eubat\u2019ta ba\u015flayan Operation Epic Fury (askeri operasyon ad\u0131) \u00f6ncesi seviyelere fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00f6nmesinin zaman alabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. <\/p>\n
2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki dalgalanmaya bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ablukas\u0131n\u0131n bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin endi\u015fe etti\u011fi stagflasyon \u015fokunu tetikledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Operation Epic Fury ile ba\u015flayan aksama, enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda sert s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131 ve bu etki k\u00fcresel ekonomiye yay\u0131ld\u0131. Bu tablo, piyasadaki mevcut konumlanma a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir arka plan olu\u015fturdu. <\/p>\n
CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX – ABD hisse piyasas\u0131nda beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) Nisan 2025\u2019te 40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak piyasalarda belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde IMF k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Beklendi\u011fi gibi Asya ekonomileri a\u011f\u0131r darbe ald\u0131; Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda teknik resesyona (ekonominin iki \u00e7eyrek \u00fcst \u00fcste k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi) girdi. ABD\u2019de enflasyon, T\u00dcFE (CPI – T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 5,9 ile zirve yapt\u0131. <\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 zor bir ikilemle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131 ve \u201carz kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon\u201dla (\u00fcretim\/tedarik \u015foklar\u0131ndan do\u011fan fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 boyunca faizleri art\u0131rmak zorunda kald\u0131. Fiyatlar\u0131 dizginlemek i\u00e7in at\u0131lan bu ad\u0131m, \u00f6zellikle imalatta (sanayi \u00fcretimi) ekonomik faaliyeti daha da s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Bu politika tercihlerinin etkileri bug\u00fcn de hissediliyor. <\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn enflasyon Fed\u2019in hedefinin (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ula\u015fmak istedi\u011fi enflasyon oran\u0131) \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ederken b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131f. Bu nedenle para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) y\u00f6n\u00fc belirsiz. B\u00f6yle bir ortamda, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc veren kontrat) \u00fczerine opsiyonlar (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu opsiyonlar, enflasyonu bast\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yeni faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 m\u0131 yoksa resesyonu (ekonomik daralma) \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in faiz indirimleri mi gelece\u011fi tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar. <\/p>\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131nda da, ilk krizin \u00fczerinden bir y\u0131l ge\u00e7mesine ra\u011fmen y\u00fcksek dalgalanma s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l varil ba\u015f\u0131na 140 dolar\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli g\u00f6ren Brent petrol, gerilese de her yeni jeopolitik man\u015fette 92 dolar civar\u0131nda sert hareketler g\u00f6steriyor. Ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde uzun vadeli al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m \u201cspread\u201dleri (iki farkl\u0131 opsiyon\/kontrat\u0131n birlikte kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, risk ve kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) kullanmak, kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 riski y\u00f6netmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. <\/p>\n
Bu stagflasyon etkisinin uzamas\u0131, hisse endekslerinin bir s\u00fcre \u201cyatay bantta\u201d (belirgin y\u00f6n olmadan belirli aral\u0131kta) kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle SPX (S&P 500 endeksine dayal\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn) \u00fczerinde \u201ciron condor\u201d (fiyat\u0131n belirli aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen, birden fazla opsiyonun birlikte kuruldu\u011fu strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemlerle konumlan\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu strateji, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket olmamas\u0131ndan ve y\u00fcksek \u201cz\u0131mni volatilite\u201dden (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131 sonras\u0131 stagflasyon endi\u015fesi IMF-D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 Bahar Toplant\u0131lar\u0131\u2019na damga vurabilir. IMF\u2019nin 14 Nisan WEO\u2019sunda b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri d\u00fc\u015febilir; enerji \u015foku, volatiliteyi y\u00fckseltip Asya\u2019y\u0131 sert etkiliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44454","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44454"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44454\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44454"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44454"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44454"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}