T\u00fcrkiye, \u015fubat ay\u0131nda **7,501 milyar dolar cari fazla** verdi. Bu rakam, **-7,5 milyar dolar cari a\u00e7\u0131k** beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u015eubat cari denge verisi piyasada dengeleri de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Beklenen a\u00e7\u0131k yerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fazla g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, son iki y\u0131ld\u0131r uygulanan **geleneksel (ortodoks) ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n** (piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131na uygun faiz ve kur politikas\u0131) sonu\u00e7 vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda **T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda (TL) temel olarak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir e\u011filim** \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu olumlu d\u00f6viz giri\u015fi, kur \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde azalt\u0131r; 2025 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen kal\u0131c\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n tersine bir tablo olu\u015fur. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n **net rezervlerinin** (rezervlerden k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra kalan \u201cger\u00e7ek\u201d g\u00fc\u00e7) uzun y\u0131llar sonra ilk kez pozitife d\u00f6nerek **15 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131**, TL\u2019yi desteklemek i\u00e7in daha fazla alan yarat\u0131r. **USD\/TRY\u2019nin (dolar\/TL) gerilemesinden** faydalanan **t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler** (opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flem gibi, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal enstr\u00fcmanlar) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. \u00d6rne\u011fin **call spread** (ayn\u0131 vadede iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu ile kurulan, maliyeti azaltan strateji) veya **out-of-the-money put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131** (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut kurun alt\u0131nda kalan sat\u0131m opsiyonunu satmak; prim geliri sa\u011flarken risk i\u00e7erir) ile **40,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131na** do\u011fru hareket hedeflenebilir.<\/p>\n
Kurun daha istikrarl\u0131 olmas\u0131, T\u00fcrk hisselerine yeni bir yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. **BIST 100 endeksi**, 2024\u2019te %90\u2019\u0131 a\u015fan y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan, **kur riski** (yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131) azald\u0131k\u00e7a yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6rebilir. Bu potansiyeli de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in **BIST 100 vadeli kontratlar\u0131** (belirli bir tarihte endeksi alma\/satma taahh\u00fcd\u00fc veren ara\u00e7lar) veya **al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131** (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu fazla, Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na \u00f6nemli esneklik de sa\u011flar; piyasada \u201cfaiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131ndan, ileride olas\u0131 \u201cfaiz indirimi zaman\u0131\u201d tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Bu da T\u00fcrk varl\u0131klar\u0131na g\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fc **y\u00fcksek risk priminin** (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n ek getiri talebi) d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fine i\u015faret eder ve TL\u2019de **oynakl\u0131k satmay\u0131** (kur hareketlili\u011fi beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak) daha cazip hale getirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/TRY\u2019de **strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131** (mevcut kurun \u00fcst\u00fcne call ve alt\u0131na put olmak \u00fczere iki opsiyon satmak; kur dar bantta kal\u0131rsa prim kazand\u0131r\u0131r, sert hareketlerde risk artar) daha istikrarl\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemi fiyatlamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz cari fazla piyasay\u0131 ters k\u00f6\u015fe yapt\u0131: \u015eubat\u2019ta 7,5 milyar $ fazla, beklenti a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Rezervler g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken TL\u2019ye destek artabilir; USD\/TRY gerileyebilir, BIST\u2019e yabanc\u0131 ilgisi canlanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44453","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44453"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44453\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}