BoJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle baz\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131klar s\u00fcrse de Japonya ekonomisinin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u015fekilde toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ueda, temel enflasyonun (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemlerin etkisi azalt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) hedefi olan seviyeye do\u011fru kademeli olarak h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve fiyatlar\u0131n genel olarak tahminlerle uyumlu seyretti\u011fini belirtti. <\/p>\n
Ueda, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle finansal piyasalar\u0131n dalgal\u0131 oldu\u011funu, enflasyonda hem yukar\u0131 hem a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler bulundu\u011funu ifade etti. Y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerini (ihracat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithalat fiyatlar\u0131na oran\u0131; bozulmas\u0131 \u00fclkenin al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr) k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirerek Japonya ekonomisini bask\u0131layabilece\u011fini, artan enflasyon beklentilerinin (hanehalk\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin gelecekteki fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahmini) ise temel enflasyonu yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. <\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasada anl\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi; USD\/JPY %0,3 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 159,70\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. BoJ, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131d\u0131r ve yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 enflasyon hedefler. <\/p>\n
BoJ 2013\u2019te \u201cparasal ve niteliksel gev\u015feme\u201d (b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131yla piyasaya para vererek finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 gev\u015fetme) politikas\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131; buna varl\u0131k al\u0131mlar\u0131 yoluyla likidite (piyasada kolay al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131labilir para) art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 da dahildi. 2016\u2019da negatif faiz (mevduata eksi getiri) uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 getirdi ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirisini kontrol etti (faizi belirli bir seviyede tutmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapma). Mart 2024\u2019te ise faizi y\u00fckselterek a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek duru\u015ftan uzakla\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/p>\n
BoJ te\u015fviki yenin de\u011fer kaybetmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131; di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 faizleri sert art\u0131r\u0131nca d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f 2022 ve 2023\u2019te h\u0131zland\u0131. 2024\u2019te a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek politikadan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f bu e\u011filimi k\u0131smen tersine \u00e7evirdi. Enflasyon, zay\u0131f yen ve k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fla %2\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da etkili oldu. <\/p>\n
BoJ, faizleri h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde art\u0131rmayace\u011fi sinyalini veriyor. Ueda\u2019n\u0131n s\u00f6zleri temkinli duru\u015fu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; bu da Japonya ile di\u011fer \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k) muhtemelen y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu temel unsur, y\u0131llard\u0131r yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131n ana nedenlerinden biri. <\/p>\n
Bu \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d tutumu, son verilerle de destekleniyor: Japonya\u2019da Mart 2026 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (ge\u00e7ici dalgalanmalar\u0131 azalt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon) %2,1 ile y\u00f6netilebilir seviyede. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, yen \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesinin temel nedeni. <\/p>\n
Piyasalarda USD\/JPY paritesi 162,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve 2025 boyunca olu\u015fan e\u011filimi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. O y\u0131l Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleri (kurda y\u00f6n vermek i\u00e7in do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) hat\u0131rlansa da, etkileri k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli kald\u0131. Faiz fark\u0131 bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck olduk\u00e7a yenin zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 devam ediyor. <\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, Brent petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu durum Japon ekonomisini bask\u0131larken, Ueda\u2019n\u0131n da belirtti\u011fi gibi daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon riskini g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Bu belirsizlik, yen opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. <\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 (opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem gibi s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle i\u015flem yapanlar) i\u00e7in bu ortam, USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almay\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu strateji, yenin daha fazla de\u011fer kaybetmesi ihtimalinden yararlanmay\u0131 hedeflerken zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. BoJ\u2019un kademeli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, 3\u20136 ay vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler daha uygun olabilir. <\/p>\n
\u201c\u0130stikrars\u0131z hareketler\u201d uyar\u0131lar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, oynakl\u0131k temelli stratejiler de de\u011ferlendirilebilir. 2025 ilkbahar \u00fccret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda yen paritelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert hareketler hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bir sonraki BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde opsiyon straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynama) almak, piyasan\u0131n beklenenden b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi BoJ\u2019u temkinli k\u0131l\u0131yor: Ueda, ekonomide \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 toparlanma ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonda kademeli h\u0131zlanma vurgulad\u0131. Petrol ve beklentiler risk; faiz fark\u0131 yen bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131, USD\/JPY\u2019yi y\u00fcksek tutuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44451"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44451\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}