Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Asya\u2019daki kay\u0131plar\u0131 izleyerek %1\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyordu. Brent petrol de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015fla bo\u015fluklu (gapli) \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; Pazartesi sabah\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avrupa endekslerinin, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesinin (pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n) ard\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyordu. ABD piyasalar\u0131 Cuma\u2019y\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatt\u0131; S&P 500 %0,1 geriledi ve y\u00fcksek getirili kredi (high-yield: kredi notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u015firket tahvilleri, bu nedenle risk ve faizleri daha y\u00fcksek) %0,4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu, enflasyon verileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019da Stoxx 600 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,4 y\u00fckselerek, OMX Nordic ise %1,3 artarak kapand\u0131. Bu durum, hafta sonu haberlerine tepkiyle Avrupa\u2019da \u201cgeriden gelen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u201d (catch-down: di\u011ferlerine g\u00f6re \u00f6nce daha az d\u00fc\u015fen piyasan\u0131n sonradan h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle fark\u0131 kapatmas\u0131) beklentisini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc teknoloji, en iyi performans g\u00f6steren sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131ndayd\u0131; ancak yaz\u0131l\u0131m hisseleri d\u00fc\u015fmeye devam etti. Yar\u0131 iletken hisselerinin bu zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 dengeleyecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Hammadde (materials) ve gayrimenkul iyi performans g\u00f6sterirken, sa\u011fl\u0131k ve temel t\u00fcketim gibi defansif sekt\u00f6rler (ekonomik dalgalanmalarda daha az etkilenen alanlar) geriledi. Hisseler ve hisse vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: belirli bir tarihte, \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) d\u00fc\u015ferken, ABD dolar\u0131 hafif g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerindeki kopu\u015fa nas\u0131l tepki verdi\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz: \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (risk-off: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p nakit\/ABD dolar\u0131 gibi daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerine y\u00f6nelmesi) a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f, Brent petrol yukar\u0131 bo\u015fluklu a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve endeks vadeli i\u015flemleri sert d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu \u00f6rnek, petrol \u00fcreten b\u00f6lgelerdeki jeopolitik gerilimlere piyasan\u0131n ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. ABD dolar\u0131na h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00f6neli\u015f (g\u00fcvenli liman talebi) belirgin bir unsurdu.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan OPEC+ \u00fcretim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri (OPEC ve m\u00fcttefikleri; arz kararlar\u0131 petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 etkiler) etraf\u0131ndaki gerilim yeniden artarken benzer bir risk tablosu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) k\u00fcresel petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n (envanter) son be\u015f y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n %3 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu bildirdi; bu, piyasay\u0131 arz \u015foklar\u0131na (beklenmedik arz kesintisi) \u00e7ok daha a\u00e7\u0131k hale getiriyor. Arz\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 olmas\u0131, tek bir haberin etkisini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (derivatives: de\u011feri dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 oynakl\u0131kta (volatility: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) ani art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. VIX (S&P 500\u2019in beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi, \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) \u015fu anda 16 ile birka\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyrederken, al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak piyasadaki ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunman\u0131n (hedge: riski dengeleme) veya bundan faydalanman\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir yolu olabilir. 2024\u2019te benzer bir korkuda VIX\u2019in tek g\u00fcnde %25\u2019ten fazla s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji piyasas\u0131 da artan gerilime do\u011frudan bir ara\u00e7 sunuyor. Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 94 dolar seviyesindeyken, yak\u0131n vadeli vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde uzun pozisyon (long: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyon) almak veya al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131n almak, fiyat\u0131n 100 dolara do\u011fru s\u0131\u00e7rama ihtimaline do\u011frudan maruz kalma sa\u011flar. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin petrol fiyat\u0131na k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede 10-15 dolarl\u0131k \u201crisk primi\u201d (belirsizlik nedeniyle ek fiyat) ekleyebildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n 2025 olay\u0131nda, sekt\u00f6rlerin temel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn devam edebildi\u011fini de hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz; \u00f6zellikle yar\u0131 iletkenler gibi d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel alanlarda (cyclical: ekonomi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyken daha iyi, zay\u0131fken daha k\u00f6t\u00fc performans e\u011filimi). Daha geli\u015fmi\u015f bir i\u015flem, defansif ETF\u2019lerde (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u00f6rne\u011fin kamu hizmetleri (utilities) odakl\u0131 XLU\u2019da sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131rken, ayn\u0131 anda teknoloji veya hammadde ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu almaktan olu\u015fabilir. Bu, man\u015fet riskine ra\u011fmen b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (ekonomik aktivite beklentisi) tamamen kaybolmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi \u00e7ok olas\u0131d\u0131r. DXY endeksi (ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 105 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor. Uluslararas\u0131 pozisyonu olanlar i\u00e7in UUP ETF\u2019sinde al\u0131m opsiyonu almak, portf\u00f6y i\u00e7in etkili bir koruma olabilir. Bu, ge\u00e7mi\u015f riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinde dolarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131na benzer bir hareketi hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri t\u0131kan\u0131nca risk i\u015ftah\u0131 sert bozuldu: Asya kay\u0131plar\u0131 Avrupa\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yor. Brent petrol gapli y\u00fckselip 100 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc test ediyor. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken VIX d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; opsiyonlu koruma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44448","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44448","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44448"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44448\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44448"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44448"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44448"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}