Asya\u2019daki bir\u00e7ok hisse senedi endeksi, ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin anla\u015fma olmadan bitmesinin ve Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ABD ordusunun H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda abluka uygulayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. Japonya\u2019da Nikkei 225 %0,8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de KOSPI %0,85 geriledi, Hong Kong\u2019da Hang Seng %1,16 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u00c7in\u2019de \u015eanghay Bile\u015fik Endeksi ise neredeyse yatay seyretti.<\/p>\n
Avrupa hisse vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: ileride teslim i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131; ABD vadeli i\u015flemleri Wall Street\u2019te g\u00fcne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ba\u015flanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Trump, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Do\u011fu saatiyle 10:00\u2019dan (14:00 GMT) itibaren \u0130ran\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kan t\u00fcm gemilerin engellenece\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken petrol fiyatlar\u0131 yeniden y\u00fckseldi. Bu ad\u0131m\u0131n, \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn ana al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 olan \u00c7in\u2019i bask\u0131lamay\u0131 hedefledi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yeniden masaya d\u00f6n\u00fcp d\u00f6nmemesinin kendisini ilgilendirmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ge\u00e7en \u00e7ar\u015famba ba\u015flayan iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olarak durdurulmas\u0131) ise s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu durum, hisse senetlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn daha da derinle\u015fmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda abluka uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131n ate\u015fkesi ihlal edece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 da b\u00f6lgeye yakla\u015fan askeri gemilerin \u201ca\u011f\u0131r \u015fekilde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6rece\u011fini\u201d belirtti. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ekonomik veri takvimi sakin oldu\u011fundan, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelecek haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ablukas\u0131 devreye al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda piyasan\u0131n verdi\u011fi tepki hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bu geli\u015fme, hisse piyasalar\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015flara ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Sonraki haftalarda fiyatlarda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 dalgalanma (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stermesi) g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, piyasalar daha geni\u015f bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskini fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki abluka, Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fc 2025 yaz\u0131na do\u011fru varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f, k\u00fcresel enflasyonda (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 tetiklemi\u015fti; merkez bankalar\u0131 bu bask\u0131yla h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fccadele ediyor. Bu d\u00f6nemde CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: S&P 500 opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) uzun s\u00fcre 30\u2019un \u00fczerinde kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki g\u00f6rece sakin seyrin tersine i\u015faret ediyordu. K\u00f6rfez\u2019den ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sigorta primleri \u00fc\u00e7e katlanm\u0131\u015f, enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki sekt\u00f6rlerde de tedarik zincirleri (\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn ham maddeden m\u00fc\u015fteriye ula\u015fana kadarki lojistik a\u011f\u0131) bozulmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla, 13 Nisan 2026\u2019da, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha sakin olsa da risk tamamen ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonundaki diplomatik giri\u015fimlerin etkisiyle tansiyon d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131. VIX yakla\u015f\u0131k 18 seviyesine indi; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede ani bir \u015foktan daha az endi\u015fe duydu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arka planda, tansiyon azalm\u0131\u015f olsa da s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar k\u0131r\u0131lgan dengeye uygun stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. S&P 500 gibi geni\u015f endekslerde paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, hemen kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 avantajl\u0131 olmayan) \u201cput credit spread\u201d satmak (put spread: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta niteli\u011finde put opsiyonu kombinasyonu; credit spread: sat\u0131\u015ftan prim al\u0131nan, zarar\/kar s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 olan yap\u0131) kalan oynakl\u0131ktan prim (opsiyon primi: opsiyonun bedeli) toplamay\u0131 hedefleyebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, zaman erimesinden (time decay: opsiyonun vadesi yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a de\u011fer kaybetmesi) ve yatay piyasadan yararlan\u0131r; ancak ani bir gerilim art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 net risk s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 ve disiplinli zarar kontrol\u00fc gerektirir.<\/p>\n
Enerji taraf\u0131nda do\u011frudan pozisyon almak isteyenler i\u00e7in, petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) tarihsel ortalamalara g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. USO gibi petrol ETF\u2019lerinde (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) uzun vadeli, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan call opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, olas\u0131 yeni bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Bu yap\u0131, sermaye riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerden daha fazla faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca yeniden \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (risk-off: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) sinyalleri izlenmeli; bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131 (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131klar) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. 2025\u2019te tansiyonun zirvesinde Japon Yeni ve ABD dolar\u0131na belirgin para giri\u015fleri olmu\u015ftu. Mevcut diplomatik sessizli\u011fin bozulmas\u0131, g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 tekrar g\u00fcndeme getirebilir ve d\u00f6viz t\u00fcrevlerinde (derivatives: fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda abluka tehdidi piyasalar\u0131 sarst\u0131: ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc, Asya borsalar\u0131 geriledi. Petrol y\u00fckselirken ABD vadeli negatife d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Ate\u015fkes d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler Orta Do\u011fu haberlerinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44447","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44447"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44447\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44447"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44447"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44447"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}