ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin ard\u0131ndan anla\u015fma olmadan sona erdi. ABD, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen ablukaya al\u0131nabilece\u011fini (gemilerin ge\u00e7i\u015finin askeri g\u00fc\u00e7le engellenmesi) a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bir abluka, bo\u011fazdan \u015fu anda izin verilen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bile durdurmay\u0131 hedefler. Bu durum, k\u0131sa vadede k\u00fcresel petrol ve do\u011fal gaz arz\u0131ndaki (piyasaya sunulan miktar) s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa tepkisi \u015fimdilik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, EUR\/USD 1,17\u2019nin alt\u0131na geriledi.<\/p>\n
Bu seviyeler, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 u\u00e7lardan uzak. EUR\/USD \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi kur dalgalanmas\u0131) g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda sava\u015f\u0131n yeniden \u015fiddetlenmesi halinde para birimleri \u00fczerindeki etkiler artabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerinin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen piyasada bir kopukluk var. K\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda abluka tehdidi, fiyatlara tam yans\u0131m\u0131yor. Brent petrol \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 104 dolar civar\u0131nda tutunuyor; bu seviye, 2022\u2019deki ilk enerji \u015fokunda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 130 dolar band\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Bu sakinlik, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 diplomatik bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bekledi\u011fine ve \u201crisk priminin\u201d (belirsizlik ve risk i\u00e7in talep edilen ek getiri) ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin EUR\/USD\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k \u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,5 seviyesinde; bu, 2025\u2019te gerilim ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00fczeylere yak\u0131n. Bu ortam, olas\u0131 bir \u015fok bekleyenler i\u00e7in \u201ckoruma\u201d (zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in opsiyonla sigorta) maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji arz\u0131nda ya\u015fanabilecek kesintinin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylar i\u00e7in Brent petrolde \u201cout-of-the-money al\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (mevcut fiyattan daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, fiyat sert y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) almak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Bu opsiyonlar \u015fu an g\u00f6rece ucuz ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de durum bozulursa sert y\u00fckseli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar. Benzer \u015fekilde, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k EUR \u201csat\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d (euro d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle yap\u0131labilmesine kap\u0131 aral\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025 sonundaki ilk ate\u015fkeste piyasa h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde en iyi senaryoyu fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; \u015fimdi benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak Umman K\u00f6rfezi yak\u0131n\u0131nda deniz kuvvetleri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden uydu verileri, temel riskin b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da mevcut opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak tercih edilmesiyle (risk art\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dolara y\u00f6nelmesi) ya\u015fanabilecek ani harekete yeterince i\u015faret etmeyebilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel risk, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerden oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sert bi\u00e7imde yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Ani bir t\u0131rmanma, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 rahat pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 kapanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak hem enerji hem de d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketler yaratabilir. Bu nedenle \u201cuzun oynakl\u0131k\u201d ta\u015f\u0131yanlar (oynakl\u0131k artarsa kazanan strateji\/pozisyon) piyasadaki gerilimin azalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131karsa avantaj sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de abluka tehdidi masada: ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri sonu\u00e7suz bitti, ate\u015fkes sonras\u0131 risk yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131yor. Brent 104$\u2019ta, EUR\/USD 1,17 alt\u0131. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k, ucuz opsiyonla koruma f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44446","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44446","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44446"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44446\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44446"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44446"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44446"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}