ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Truth.Social\u2019da \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giren veya bu limanlardan \u00e7\u0131kan gemilere y\u00f6nelik bir ablukay\u0131 bug\u00fcn, 13 Nisan\u2019da ABD Do\u011fu saatiyle (ET) 10.00\u2019da (GMT 14.00) ba\u015flatacaklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Payla\u015f\u0131mda, ABD\u2019nin bu saatten itibaren ablukay\u0131 uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Payla\u015f\u0131mdan sonra ABD Dolar\u0131 (USD) veya WTI petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda anl\u0131k bir hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi.<\/p>\n
Bu bilgi g\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerinde ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM) taraf\u0131ndan zaten payla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasa \u015fu an sakin g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir, ancak bu yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131. Ablukan\u0131n sahadaki etkisi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131k\u00e7a \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda petrol s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) belirgin bi\u00e7imde artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n dip seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyreden Cboe Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) (petrol opsiyonlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6sterebilir; bu da \u201coynakl\u0131kta uzun pozisyon\u201d (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) arayanlar i\u00e7in daha cazip bir tablo yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu abluka, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 do\u011frudan tehdit ediyor. K\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine denk gelen g\u00fcnl\u00fck 21 milyon varil petrol bu bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyor. Olas\u0131 bir fiyat \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde \u201czarar ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131\u201d (out-of-the-money call; mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip, y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nan opsiyon) alarak pozisyon al\u0131n\u0131yor. Brent, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerine WTI\u2019a g\u00f6re daha hassas bir g\u00f6sterge. 2019\u2019da Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar sonras\u0131 Brent\u2019in bir g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 y\u00fckselmesi, tablonun ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 sertle\u015febilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,5 milyon varillik ihracat\u0131n\u0131n piyasadan aniden \u00e7ekilmesi, k\u00fcresel arz-talep dengesini ciddi bi\u00e7imde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. OPEC+ (OPEC ve ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim ittifak\u0131) a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. \u0130ttifak\u0131n \u201cyedek \u00fcretim kapasitesi\u201dnin (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede devreye al\u0131nabilecek ek \u00fcretim) 4 milyon varilin alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu tahmin ediliyor; bu miktar arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesini bast\u0131rmaya yetmeyebilir. \u00dcretimi art\u0131rma konusunda teredd\u00fct, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir.<\/p>\n
Brent-WTI fark\u0131 (iki petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131) da izleniyor; risk Do\u011fu Yar\u0131mk\u00fcre\u2019de yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu fark\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck tanker \u015firketleri \u00fczerinde \u201ct\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn\u201d (fiyat hareketine ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fme) bazl\u0131 i\u015flemler g\u00fcndemde; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc artan risk nedeniyle sigorta ve operasyon maliyetleri y\u00fckselebilir. Benzer \u015fekilde, askeri gerilim s\u00fcrerse b\u00fcy\u00fck savunma \u015firketleri hisselerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 da kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar sakin ama f\u0131rt\u0131na kap\u0131da: Trump, \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na gemi ablukas\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcn ba\u015flat\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski Brent\u2019i \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken OVX\u2019te s\u0131\u00e7rama, Brent-WTI fark\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131lma ve tanker maliyetlerinde art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44441"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44441\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}