NYMEX\u2019te i\u015flem g\u00f6ren WTI vadeli petrol kontratlar\u0131, Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde %7,6 y\u00fckselerek 98,00 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hareket, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Truth.Social payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Trump, donanmaya H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na girmeye veya bo\u011fazdan \u00e7\u0131kmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u201cherhangi ya da t\u00fcm gemileri\u201d abluka alt\u0131na alma talimat\u0131 verdi\u011fini yazd\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n (d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131ndaki enerji tedarikinin) yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019siyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f hatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Uyar\u0131, \u0130ran ile ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer hedeflerinden vazge\u00e7memesi \u00fczerine sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Trump ayr\u0131ca donanmaya, \u201culuslararas\u0131 sularda \u0130ran\u2019a ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti \u00f6demi\u015f her gemiyi bulup durdurma\u201d talimat\u0131 verdi\u011fini belirterek \u201cyasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti \u00f6deyen hi\u00e7 kimsenin a\u00e7\u0131k denizlerde g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015fi olmayacak\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7lerin Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc TS\u0130 17.00\u2019de (10:00 ET, 14:00 GMT) \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giren ve \u00e7\u0131kan t\u00fcm deniz trafi\u011fine abluka ba\u015flataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak Suudi Arabistan, Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n tam pompalama kapasitesini g\u00fcnl\u00fck 7 milyon varile yeniden \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte WTI yakla\u015f\u0131k 98 dolar seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama; son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) 93,41 dolar \u00fczerindeki seyrini korudu. RSI (14) (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; fiyat\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 56,23 seviyesindeydi; destek 93,41 dolar civar\u0131nda, daha yukar\u0131da ise 106,70 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n bir e\u015fik \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
98 dolar\/varil seviyesine y\u00f6nelim, piyasa dengesinde belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen ablukaya al\u0131nmas\u0131, 1970\u2019lerden bu yana en sert arz kesintisi (piyasaya gelen petrol miktar\u0131nda ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f) anlam\u0131na gelir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 (volatilite) ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 riski artm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
WTI\u2019da \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan daha yukar\u0131da olan al\u0131m hakk\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00f6nelim g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle Haziran ve Temmuz vadeli kontratlarda, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na talep art\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlarda \u201cimplied volatility\u201d (piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k; opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan dalgalanma beklentisi) %65\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, piyasan\u0131n sert ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi zor fiyat hareketleri bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u201csigorta\u201d maliyeti (hedge\/korunma maliyeti) h\u0131zla art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu arz \u015foku, piyasan\u0131n zaten s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011fu (talebe g\u00f6re arz\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131) bir d\u00f6neme denk geliyor ve etkiyi b\u00fcy\u00fctebilir. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) son raporu, ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 3,8 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (stoklar\u0131n azalmas\u0131) oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Analistler k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyordu. Bu tablo, \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 varillerin devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 piyasada tamponun zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, fiyat\u0131n 93,41 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini destekliyor. Bu seviyeye do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmeler, uzun pozisyon (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) eklemek i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bir sonraki hedef, 106,70 dolar civar\u0131ndaki son zirve; bu seviye k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede test edilebilir.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda WTI\u2019\u0131n birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 90 dolardan 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nem hat\u0131rlanmal\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik mevcut tehdit, bo\u011fazdan g\u00fcnl\u00fck ge\u00e7en petrol hacmi nedeniyle benzer ve hatta daha sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Ana yakla\u015f\u0131m y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olsa da, ani bir yumu\u015fama riskini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 boru hatt\u0131 kapasitesini art\u0131rmas\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir denge unsuru olsa da, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7en g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varili ikame edemez. Bu nedenle, uzun vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u201cput spread\u201d ile korumak (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu kullanarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlayan korunma stratejisi) ani bir diplomatik geli\u015fmeye kar\u015f\u0131 daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde ate\u015f y\u00fckseliyor: Trump\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131 talimat\u0131 sonras\u0131 WTI Asya\u2019da %7,6 s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p 98 dolara dayand\u0131. Arz \u015foku korkusu opsiyon volatilitesini %65 \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. 106,7 diren\u00e7 izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44423","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44423"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44423\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44423"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44423"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44423"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}