USD\/JPY, son iki g\u00fcndeki y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve haftaya yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bo\u015flukla (bullish gap: fiyat\u0131n \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) ba\u015flad\u0131; Asya seans\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 159,85\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ancak olas\u0131 piyasa m\u00fcdahalesi (yetkililerin kura do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131mla m\u00fcdahale etmesi) endi\u015fesi y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (risk-off: yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan g\u00fcvenli limanlara y\u00f6nelmesi) g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu durum rezerv para (merkez bankalar\u0131nca tutulan ana para birimi) olarak ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli) kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Yen, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 ithal enerji maliyetleri endi\u015fesiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in resmi ad\u0131m gelebilece\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylemler, USD\/JPY\u2019de ek y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Parite, ge\u00e7en hafta 158,25\u2013158,20 destek b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerinde kalarak yukar\u0131 e\u011filimini korudu. Ayr\u0131ca 200 periyotluk basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA: belirli say\u0131daki d\u00f6nem fiyat ortalamas\u0131) \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi: y\u00fckseli\u015f-h\u0131z \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) yakla\u015f\u0131k 63 seviyesinde, MACD (hareketli ortalama yak\u0131nsama\/\u0131raksama: trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) ise g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131 i\u00e7in 160,00 \u00fczerindeki kal\u0131c\u0131 hareketi izleyebilir. Destek seviyeleri 200 periyotluk SMA olan 158,56; ard\u0131ndan 158,25\u2013158,20 ve 158,00. Bu seviyelerin alt\u0131na ini\u015f, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla benzer bir tablo \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; parite 162,50 civar\u0131nda yeni zirveleri zorluyor. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (core CPI: enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,4 gelmesi, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi beklentilerini yeniden \u00f6teledi. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek politikas\u0131ndan (ultra-loose: \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz ve destekleyici ad\u0131mlar) temkinli \u015fekilde uzakla\u015fmas\u0131yla olu\u015fan politika fark\u0131, USD\/JPY i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntemdir. Trend s\u00fcrerse y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir; Japon yetkililer aniden m\u00fcdahale ederse azami zarar \u00f6denen primle (premium: opsiyonun maliyeti) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131r. 2024\u2019te Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Ministry of Finance) h\u0131zl\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesinin dakikalar i\u00e7inde kurda \u00e7ok sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7mas\u0131, bu riskin \u00f6nemini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Geri \u00e7ekilmeden daha fazla \u00e7ekinenler i\u00e7in \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonu (OTM put: mevcut fiyattan daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi) almak, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir koruma y\u00f6ntemi olabilir. Bu strateji \u00f6zellikle mevcut uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 (long: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle ta\u015f\u0131nan pozisyon) m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 ani ters harekete kar\u015f\u0131 hedge etmek (hedging: riski dengelemek\/korunmak) i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r. Opsiyonlardaki z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) parite y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e artar; bu da piyasadaki tedirginli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak, RSI\u2019n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine (overbought: k\u0131sa vadede a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u015fareti) girmemesi ve pozitif MACD gibi teknik sinyaller, y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumunun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Ancak bu kritik b\u00f6lgede giri\u015f maliyetini azaltmak ve riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in \u201cbull call spread\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call satmak: maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, getiriyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) gibi t\u00fcrev yap\u0131lar (derivative structures: opsiyon-spread gibi kombinasyonlar) tercih edilebilir. Temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm USD\/JPY\u2019nin daha yukar\u0131 gidebilece\u011fini destekliyor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n politika kaynakl\u0131 ani ters hareket riski de ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY, risk-off ve Fed \u015fahinli\u011fiyle 159,85\u2019e gapli t\u0131rmand\u0131; yen zay\u0131f. Ancak m\u00fcdahale endi\u015fesi tavan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. 160 \u00fczeri izleniyor; opsiyon\/spreadlerle y\u00fckseli\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131, ani ters riske kar\u015f\u0131 korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44421","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44421","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44421"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44421\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44421"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44421"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44421"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}