EUR\/JPY, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 186,60 civar\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00d6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan parite 186,50\u2019ye yak\u0131n seyretti. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in do\u011frulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, \u0130slamabad\u2019daki ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri 21 saat s\u00fcren m\u00fczakerelere ra\u011fmen anla\u015fma olmadan bitti. Bu geli\u015fme Euro\u2019yu zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Washington\u2019un H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na giren veya \u00e7\u0131kan t\u00fcm gemilere y\u00f6nelik **abluka** (deniz trafi\u011fini engelleme) ba\u015flataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), pazartesi 10.00 ET (14.00 GMT) itibar\u0131yla \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giden ve \u0130ran limanlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kan deniz trafi\u011fini hedefleyen operasyonlar\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Nordea, ate\u015fkes \u00f6ncesi senaryosunda Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) hazirandan ba\u015flayarak d\u00f6rder kez **25 baz puan** (faizde y\u00fczde 0,25\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Daha sonra bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere i\u015faret etti; buna kar\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcren fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi.<\/p>\n
EUR\/JPY\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 **stagflasyon** (y\u00fcksek enflasyonla birlikte zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme) endi\u015feleri nedeniyle Yen\u2019in zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olabilir. Daha y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri, 28 Nisan\u2019daki karar \u00f6ncesinde Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisini de g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Sakura Raporu\u2019na g\u00f6re kurul \u00fcyeleri, 6 Nisan\u2019daki \u015fube m\u00fcd\u00fcrleri toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon risklerini daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme riskleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Dokuz b\u00f6lgenin tamam\u0131 ekonomilerinin \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u015fekilde toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d, \u201ctoparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d veya \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u015fekilde ivmelendi\u011fini\u201d belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk ve en h\u0131zl\u0131 etki enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclecek; bu da petrolde **t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler** (fiyat\u0131 petrol gibi bir dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi ara\u00e7lar) \u00fczerinden i\u015flem f\u0131rsat\u0131 do\u011furabilir. D\u00fcnya petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7ti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, abluka g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir **arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc** (\u00fcretim\/ta\u015f\u0131ma tarafl\u0131) endi\u015fe yaratabilir. Bu nedenle Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde **al\u0131m opsiyonu (call)** (belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) de\u011ferlendirilebilir; varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine sert \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na pozisyon al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n
EUR\/JPY taraf\u0131nda tablo daha karma\u015f\u0131k. Her iki para birimi de bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fundan tek y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tahminle pozisyon almak riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Euro, genel **riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f** (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan uzakla\u015fmas\u0131) e\u011filimiyle zay\u0131flarken; Yen, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili etki pariteyi \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Bu ortamda belirli bir y\u00f6n yerine geni\u015f bir fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na odaklanan **opsiyon stratejileri** (fiyat\u0131n yukar\u0131\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketine g\u00f6re hak veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle kurulan yap\u0131) daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir ayr\u0131\u015fma izlenmeli. ECB, enerji \u015fokunun ekonomiye zarar vermesini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatmak zorunda kalabilir. BoJ ise ithalat kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in **para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma** (faizi art\u0131rma\/likiditeyi azaltma) bask\u0131s\u0131 hissedebilir. Bu durum, birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce \u00f6zellikle 2023\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen dinami\u011fin tersine d\u00f6nmesi anlam\u0131na gelebilir ve orta vadede EUR\/JPY \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle b\u00f6lge b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine y\u00f6nelik riskler belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi. Bu nedenle portf\u00f6yleri Avrupa ekonomisinde olas\u0131 bir gerilemeye kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in Euro Stoxx 50 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck Avrupa borsa endekslerinde **sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put)** (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almak, beklenen ekonomik etkilenmeye kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan bir **hedge\/korunma** sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de abluka mesaj\u0131 ve ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri EUR\/JPY\u2019yi 186,50-186,60 band\u0131nda bask\u0131lad\u0131. Enerji \u015foku, stagflasyon ve ECB\u2013BoJ ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimali; petrol ve opsiyonlarla hedge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44420","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44420"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44420\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44420"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44420"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44420"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}