USD\/CHF haftaya y\u00fckseli\u015fle ba\u015flad\u0131 ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 0,7855\u2019ten toparland\u0131. Be\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131ran parite 0,7925 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; %0,50 y\u00fckseldi. Hareketi, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri hafta sonu sonu\u00e7suz kal\u0131nca risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) zay\u0131flad\u0131. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 saat s\u00fcren g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde ilerleme sa\u011flanamad\u0131. Donald Trump, ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na giren ya da \u00e7\u0131kan gemileri ablukaya alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fmeler ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti ve enflasyon (fiyatlar\u0131n genel d\u00fczeyindeki art\u0131\u015f) endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu da, ba\u015fta ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) olmak \u00fczere b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na yak\u0131n) bir duru\u015fa kayabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD enflasyon verileri, Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l faiz indirimine gitme beklentilerini azaltt\u0131 ve olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirdi. ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki (tahvil faizi) y\u00fckseli\u015f de ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Wall Street Journal, b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yeniden ba\u015flatmay\u0131 hedefledi\u011fini yazd\u0131. Bu haber, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki ilave y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. USD\/CHF ise 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (son 100 g\u00fcn\u00fcn kapan\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131; teknik analizde destek\/diren\u00e7 i\u00e7in izlenir) \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimini korudu.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc tablo, Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik risk primi (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda fiyatlara eklenen \u201crisk pay\u0131\u201d) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Son veriler ABD\u2019de enflasyonun \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; Mart T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; enflasyonun ana g\u00f6stergesi) %2,8 geldi ve Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir \u00e7izgiye y\u00f6nelmesi ihtimalini zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen belirgin bir politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 olu\u015ftu. Fed\u2019in bekle-g\u00f6r moduna ge\u00e7ti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) kal\u0131c\u0131 i\u00e7 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131yla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in ge\u00e7en ay faizi %1,75\u2019e y\u00fckselterek piyasalar\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. Faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) frank lehine a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, USD\/CHF\u2019te daha kolay y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 taraf olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemleri yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, paritede z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) 2025\u2019teki askeri gerilim d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor; bu da opsiyon stratejilerini daha ucuz hale getiriyor. Temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmdeki de\u011fi\u015fim, daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle USD\/CHF sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle Haziran ve Temmuz vadelerine (vade sonu\/sona erme tarihi) bakmak, politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 temas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in zaman tan\u0131r. 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama, 2025\u2019te g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destekken, \u015fimdi diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) noktas\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle, s\u00f6z konusu teknik seviyenin alt\u0131nda sat\u0131m opsiyonu spread\u2019i (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte kullanarak maliyet\/riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha dengeli bir risk-getiri (al\u0131nan riske kar\u015f\u0131 beklenen kazan\u00e7) sunabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckten tepki verdi: Jeopolitik risk ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri dolar\u0131 destekledi. Ancak Nisan 2026\u2019da enflasyon \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131, SNB \u015fahin; faiz fark\u0131 frank lehine, put stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44419","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44419","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44419"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44419\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44419"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44419"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44419"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}