ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 alt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda izleyen endeks, kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verse de art\u0131da kald\u0131. Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde 99,00 civar\u0131nda seyretti.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin anla\u015fma olmadan bitmesi sonras\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (piyasa stresi art\u0131nca riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neli\u015f) talebinin artmas\u0131yla y\u00fckseldi. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, \u0130slamabad\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin 21 saat s\u00fcren m\u00fczakerelerin ard\u0131ndan anla\u015fmas\u0131z sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na giren ya da \u00e7\u0131kan gemilere y\u00f6nelik ablukaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giden ve bu limanlardan \u00e7\u0131kan deniz trafi\u011fini hedefleyen operasyonlar\u0131n pazartesi TS\u0130 17.00\u2019de (ET 10.00 \/ GMT 14.00) ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dolar, mart ay\u0131 ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisinin, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesiyle de destek buldu. ABD \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu (BLS), y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019nin martta %3,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. \u015eubatta %2,4 olan oran beklentiyle uyumlu geldi.<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE %0,9 artt\u0131 (\u00f6nceki %0,3). \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemleri d\u0131\u015flayan enflasyon) ayl\u0131k %0,2, y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,6 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
San Francisco Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mary Daly, enflasyon y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran gerilimi h\u0131zla azal\u0131r ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferse faiz indiriminin g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 99,00 \u00e7evresinde g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, dolar\u0131n (Greenback: ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan piyasa ifadesi) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131, piyasalarda \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131) art\u0131ran \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme. Jeopolitik gerilim \u015fu an piyasalar\u0131n ana oda\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda abluka, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rama ve genel piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (fiyatlar\u0131n daha sert dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131\u015f yaratabilir. Benzer bir durum 2019\u2019da Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki sald\u0131r\u0131lar sonras\u0131 Brent petrol\u00fcn bir g\u00fcnde %4\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckselmesiyle g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. T\u00fcrev piyasada (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flem yapanlar, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015ften ve VIX\u2019teki (S&P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d; beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) art\u0131\u015ftan faydalanabilecek pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. VIX, b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik krizlerde tarihsel olarak 30\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de enflasyonun y\u00fcksek gelmesi, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine gitmemesiyle dolar\u0131 destekliyor. %3,3\u2019l\u00fck T\u00dcFE verisi, yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Bu durum, 2022-2023\u2019te Fed\u2019in faizleri %5\u2019in \u00fczerine kadar \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon d\u00f6neminde de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. B\u00f6ylece \u201cfaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalacak\u201d beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri piyasas\u0131nda (ileriki tarihteki faiz seviyesine y\u00f6nelik kontratlar) Fed\u2019in h\u0131zl\u0131 gev\u015feyece\u011fi beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak daha anlaml\u0131 hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik risk ve \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) Fed \u00e7izgisi birlikte DXY\u2019nin y\u00fckselmesine zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor. 99,00 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir seviye olsa da, Fed\u2019in son s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6neminin zirvesinde 2022 sonunda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 114 \u00fczerindeki seviyelerin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda. Bu da dolar\u0131n Euro ve Yen gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in alan olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, geli\u015fen piyasalar (emerging markets: geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler) i\u00e7in olumsuz. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f, bu \u00fclkelerden sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n para \u00e7ekmesi) h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir; para birimleri ve borsa endeksleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Geli\u015fen piyasa ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) kullanmak, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma veya bu beklentiye g\u00f6re i\u015flem yapma yolu olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DXY 99 civar\u0131nda art\u0131da: ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri sonu\u00e7suz kal\u0131nca g\u00fcvenli liman talebi dolar\u0131 destekledi. Trump\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131 riski ve %3,3 T\u00dcFE, Fed\u2019in y\u00fcksek faiz duru\u015funu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. EM bask\u0131da.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44417"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44417\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}