G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD), pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde be\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fini sonland\u0131rd\u0131; %2,5\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek ons ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 73,80 dolara indi. Talep zay\u0131flad\u0131. Enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f enflasyon (fiyatlar\u0131n genel art\u0131\u015f\u0131) endi\u015fesini b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc. Bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ve di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimlerini geciktirme veya para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 tutma (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD tipi ham petrol (WTI), haftaya y\u00fckseli\u015f bo\u015flu\u011fuyla (fiyat\u0131n \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n belirgin \u00fcst\u00fcnden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) ba\u015flad\u0131; varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 97,10 dolarda %7,5 civar\u0131 art\u0131da. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u015fekilde ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeniden artan gerilimle y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130slamabad\u2019daki bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan giren veya \u00e7\u0131kan gemileri ablukaya almaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giden ve bu limanlardan \u00e7\u0131kan deniz trafi\u011fine ablukan\u0131n pazartesi 10.00 ET\u2019de (14.00 GMT) ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD enflasyon verileri de faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini destekledi. ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu, y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019yi (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131 izleyen g\u00f6sterge) martta %3,3 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; \u015fubatta %2,4\u2019t\u00fc. Ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE %0,9 oldu; \u00f6nceki ay %0,3\u2019t\u00fc.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) ayl\u0131k %0,2, y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,6 artt\u0131. Veriler cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen kapanmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcm varl\u0131k t\u00fcrlerinde sert oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) bekleniyor. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda (belirli fiyattan alma-satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) primlerin (opsiyon bedeli) belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel. Bu, opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejileri cazip k\u0131labilir; ancak y\u00f6n riski (fiyat\u0131n ters y\u00f6ne sert gitme ihtimali) \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnekte, CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX; piyasadaki korku\/oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) \u015eubat 2022\u2019deki jeopolitik \u015fok sonras\u0131 iki haftada iki kattan fazla artarak 36\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131; benzer bir hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. vadeli i\u015flemler ve opsiyonlar) ilk tepki, daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlara pozisyon almakt\u0131r. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte bir abluka, ciddi bir arz krizi yarat\u0131r. WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden yararlanma hakk\u0131) almak, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc yakalamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. 2022\u2019de WTI fiyat\u0131 iki haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k 92 dolardan 123 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine f\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu tablo daha a\u011f\u0131r olabilir.<\/p>\n
Enerji \u015foku ile Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) birle\u015fince, hisse piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz bir zemin olu\u015fur. Bu nedenle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar art\u0131r\u0131labilir. S&P 500 veya Nasdaq 100 endekslerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden yararlanma hakk\u0131) almak, hisselerde beklenen geri \u00e7ekilmeden yararlanman\u0131n do\u011frudan bir yoludur. Mart 2022 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki petrol s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131nda S&P 500, yeni ekonomik ko\u015fullar fiyatlan\u0131rken %5\u2019ten fazla gerilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fteki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, piyasan\u0131n \u015fu an jeopolitik riskten \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek faizlere odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; ancak bu h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015febilir. K\u0131ymetli metallerde \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d al\u0131mlar\u0131 (kriz d\u00f6neminde daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) \u015fimdilik zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor. Bu y\u00fczden g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir. Yine de esnek olmak gerekir; daha geni\u015f bir panik, e\u011filimi tersine \u00e7evirip alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseltebilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc T\u00dcFE verisi ile y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Fed \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor; ek faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor ve \u201cfaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalacak\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu da ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekler. ABD dolar\u0131, k\u00fcresel krizlerde g\u00fcvenli liman say\u0131labilir. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) uzun pozisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; Fed\u2019in 2022\u2019deki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6neminde DXY yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 y\u00fckselmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol \u015foku kap\u0131da: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131 tehdidi WTI\u2019yi %7,5 s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD T\u00dcFE, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerini \u00f6teleme ihtimalini art\u0131rd\u0131; dolar destek bulurken g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f %2,5 geriledi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44412","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44412","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44412"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44412\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44412"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44412"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44412"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}