Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fuyla (piyasan\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra fazla de\u011fi\u015fmedi; Pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.670 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enflasyon riskini y\u00fckseltmesi ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirim beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131, alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol) y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fuyla a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; yakla\u015f\u0131k %8,5 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98,00 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130slamabad\u2019da yap\u0131lan ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Washington\u2019un H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na giren veya \u00e7\u0131kan gemileri ablukaya almaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), Pazartesi TS\u0130 17:00 (14:00 GMT) itibar\u0131yla \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapan deniz trafi\u011fine abluka uygulanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n genel seviyesini \u00f6l\u00e7en enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisi, \u201cfaizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131\u201d beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE Mart\u2019ta %2,4\u2019ten %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE %0,3\u2019ten sonra %0,9 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) ayl\u0131k %0,2, y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,6 y\u00fckseldi. Veriler ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de rezervlerine yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi. Bu, kay\u0131tlar\u0131n tutulmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri en y\u00fcksek y\u0131ll\u0131k al\u0131m oldu.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvilleriyle (Treasuries: ABD devletinin \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131) ters hareket eder; hisse senetleri gibi riskli varl\u0131klara kar\u015f\u0131 da z\u0131t y\u00f6nde gidebilir. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizler alt\u0131n\u0131 desteklerken, daha y\u00fcksek faizler alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla petrol fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckseliyor; bu da enflasyonu do\u011frudan besliyor. Bu tablo, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fcksek gelen T\u00dcFE verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonu %3,3\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Fed\u2019in \u201cfaizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma\u201d duru\u015funu destekliyor. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (faiz beklentilerini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) art\u0131k d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek \u00f6ncesi faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca %15 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran ge\u00e7en aya g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde geriledi.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda iki z\u0131t etki ayn\u0131 anda devrede oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in sert dalgalanma (volatilite: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta hareket etmesi) riski art\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma alt\u0131n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131k) \u00f6zelli\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken; enflasyon ve faiz beklentilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kuvvetlendirerek alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. 2024 ve 2025\u2019te de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve y\u00fcksek faizlerin, k\u00fcresel belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde bile alt\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015flerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu kadar y\u00fcksek belirsizlikte, t\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 kontratlar) alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcnden \u00e7ok dalgalanmaya odaklanmas\u0131 daha anlaml\u0131 olabilir. B\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden iki y\u00f6nde de kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilen stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir: uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak) veya strangle (ayn\u0131 vadeli fakat farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak). Cboe Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi (GVZ: alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) erken i\u015flemlerde muhtemelen %20\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu da piyasada \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert fiyat hareketi beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji taraf\u0131 daha \u201cdo\u011frudan\u201d bir alan, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ablukas\u0131 net bir arz \u015foku (arz\u0131n aniden azalmas\u0131yla fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 iten etki) yarat\u0131yor. Jeopolitik gerilim y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) veya enerji odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019ler (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u00fczerinde benzer opsiyonlar cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr ablukalar kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2024 sonundaki sevkiyat aksamalar\u0131 Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fc bir \u00e7eyrek boyunca 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in kritik bir unsur olan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n seyrini izlemek gerekiyor. Mevcut kriz dolara \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebi getiriyor; Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) bu sabah \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7 seviyelerini test ediyor. 106,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma (fiyat\u0131n diren\u00e7 seviyesini a\u015fmas\u0131), ge\u00e7en kas\u0131mdan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131na i\u015faret eder ve alt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman deste\u011fini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakabilecek ciddi bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131 korkusu piyasay\u0131 sarst\u0131: WTI %8,5 s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p 98 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131. Enflasyon ve y\u00fcksek faiz beklentisi alt\u0131n\u0131 4.670 dolarda bask\u0131larken, jeopolitik risk volatiliteyi t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44410","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44410"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44410\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44410"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44410"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44410"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}