Kanada Dolar\u0131, Pazartesi erken saatlerde ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda iki haftan\u0131n zirvesi olan 1,3844 seviyesinden geri \u00e7ekildi. USD\/CAD, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (belirsizlikte daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131k) olarak ABD Dolar\u0131 talebini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Hareket, hafta sonu bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131nda gerilimin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 izledi. Ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n risk alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na (petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n kilit ge\u00e7idi) y\u00f6nelik ablukalar uygulayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran\u2019da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatmay\u0131 da de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Ancak USD\/CAD\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fler, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fla petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sert y\u00fckselmesi nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyat\u0131, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n enerji ihracat\u0131 sayesinde Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI), haftaya \u201cyukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fu\u201d (piyasan\u0131n \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) ile ba\u015flad\u0131 ve erken i\u015flemlerde %8\u2019e kadar y\u00fckseldi. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 100 dolar\u0131 yeniden test etmeyi hedefliyordu.<\/p>\n
Mevcut ortam, USD\/CAD opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) jeopolitik risklere g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen h\u0131zl\u0131 hareketler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden her iki y\u00f6nde de faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte) veya \u201cstrangle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte) almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00f6n tahmininden \u00e7ok belirsizli\u011fin kendisinden kazan\u00e7 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, petrol\u00fcn daha fazla y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131, USD\/CAD paritesinde \u201ck\u0131sa\u201d pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynama) almaktan daha do\u011frudan bir se\u00e7enek sunar. 2022\u2019deki enerji krizinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi petrol, Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131ndan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselebilir. Bu nedenle petrol \u201ct\u00fcrevleri\u201d (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler), jeopolitik gerilim beklentisini daha net yans\u0131tabilir.<\/p>\n
Ana risk, gerilimin aniden d\u00fc\u015fmesidir. Bu durum oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 azalt\u0131r ve opsiyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar\u0131 (\u00f6zellikle \u201copsiyon primi\u201d \u00f6deyerek pozisyon alanlar\u0131; prim opsiyonun bedelidir) olumsuz etkiler. Bu y\u00fczden pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ve net k\u00e2r hedefleri belirlemek kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik \u015fok piyasay\u0131 vurdu: USD\/CAD, CAD\u2019in 1,3844\u2019l\u00fck iki haftal\u0131k zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle y\u00fckseldi. \u0130ran gerilimi dolar\u0131 desteklerken, %8 s\u0131\u00e7rayan petrol CAD\u2019\u0131 tutuyor; opsiyonda straddle\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44409"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44409\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}