GBP\/USD, Asya i\u015flemlerinde pazartesi 1,3390 civar\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131larak be\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fini sonland\u0131rd\u0131. Parite, ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla bask\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talep artt\u0131. Bunun nedeni, Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in \u0130slamabad\u2019daki ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin 21 saat sonra anla\u015fma olmadan bitti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesiydi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na giren veya \u00e7\u0131kan t\u00fcm gemilere ablukaya (ge\u00e7i\u015fi engelleme) ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (US Central Command), \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giden ve \u0130ran limanlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kan deniz trafi\u011fini hedefleyen operasyonlar\u0131n pazartesi TS\u0130 17:00\u2019de (14:00 GMT) ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf, \u201cyap\u0131c\u0131 giri\u015fimlere\u201d ra\u011fmen ABD\u2019nin Tahran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenini kazanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na yakla\u015fan askeri gemilerin ate\u015fkesi ihlal edece\u011fini ve kararl\u0131 bir yan\u0131tla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Daha \u00f6nce Sterlin, Rusya\u2013Ukrayna bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na do\u011fru ilerleme umuduyla de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Daha sonra taraflar, 32 saatlik Ortodoks Paskalyas\u0131 ate\u015fkesini (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olarak durdurulmas\u0131) birbirlerinin bozdu\u011funu \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Haberlerde, ate\u015fkes ba\u015flad\u0131ktan k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra binin \u00fczerinde \u0130HA (insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131) ve top\u00e7u sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut gerilimle birlikte, GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseliyor. \u00dc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k %11,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu oran iki ay \u00f6nceki %8,5 seviyesine g\u00f6re belirgin art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n normalden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. Bu durum, opsiyonlar\u0131 do\u011frudan sat\u0131n almay\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 hale getirir ve daha planl\u0131 y\u00f6ntemleri gerektirir.<\/p>\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131 da tabloyu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Haziran vadeli Brent petrol \u201cvadeli kontratlar\u0131\u201d (futures: ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da arz endi\u015felerinin yeniden artmas\u0131yla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolara \u00e7\u0131karak 14 ay\u0131n zirvesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu, emtiaya (petrol gibi ham maddelere) duyarl\u0131 para birimlerini ve g\u00fcvenli liman dolar\u0131 destekleyerek Sterlin i\u00e7in r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviriyor.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda, son ekonomik veriler Sterlin a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Mart 2026\u2019ya ait son Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonu beklentiden y\u00fcksek gelerek %3,1 oldu; bu da \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) \u201cg\u00fcvercin duru\u015funu\u201d (dovish: faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutma e\u011filimi) yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ABD\u2019de ge\u00e7en haftaki istihdam raporu 245 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
Bu zeminde, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc tahminler yerine artan oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanan y\u00f6ntemleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. \u201cUzun straddle\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d gibi opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131 (fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z, b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket beklentisine oynayan stratejiler) iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareket ihtimalinde kullan\u0131labilir. GBP\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekleyenler i\u00e7in \u201cput spread\u201d (sat\u0131m opsiyonu kombinasyonu: maliyeti azaltmak i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p satma) y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131nda ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi piyasay\u0131 sarst\u0131: GBP\/USD 1,3390\u2019a gerileyip 5 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ralliyi bitirdi. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, dolar g\u00fcvenli limanla g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 %11,2. Brent 98$ \u015foku. BoE\/Fed beklentileri kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44408","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44408"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44408\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44408"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44408"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44408"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}