The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberde, bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri t\u0131kan\u0131nca Beyaz Saray dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini yazd\u0131. Haberde, konuya yak\u0131n yetkililer ve bilgi sahibi ki\u015filere at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
WSJ\u2019ye g\u00f6re masadaki se\u00e7enekler aras\u0131nda, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 hedef alan bir ABD ablukas\u0131 (bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en gemilerin askeri g\u00fc\u00e7le engellenmesi) ile birlikte s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar da yer al\u0131yor. Haberde bu ad\u0131m\u0131n amac\u0131n\u0131n, m\u00fczakerelerdeki \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131 k\u0131rmak oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Haberde ayr\u0131ca, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n kapsaml\u0131 bir bombard\u0131man kampanyas\u0131n\u0131 (uzun s\u00fcreli ve geni\u015f alan\u0131 hedefleyen yo\u011fun hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131) yeniden ba\u015flatabilece\u011fi, ancak bunun daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade edildi. Yetkililer, b\u00f6lgenin istikrars\u0131zla\u015fmas\u0131 riskine ve Trump\u2019\u0131n uzun s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara kar\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesine dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Bir di\u011fer se\u00e7enek ise k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir abluka ve ABD\u2019nin m\u00fcttefiklerini bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7i\u015flerde daha uzun s\u00fcreli \u201crefakat\/eskort\u201d g\u00f6revine (ticari gemilerin askeri unsurlarla korunarak ge\u00e7irilmesi) ikna etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131. WSJ, herhangi bir karar i\u00e7in takvim payla\u015fmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde artan gerilim, enerji piyasalar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadede ciddi risk yarat\u0131yor. Deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan k\u00fcresel petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %25\u2019i bu \u201cdar bo\u011fazdan\u201d (ge\u00e7i\u015fin zorunlu oldu\u011fu stratejik g\u00fczerg\u00e2h) ge\u00e7iyor. Bu nedenle olas\u0131 bir abluka veya askeri hareket, WTI ve Brent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (ilerideki bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran hak) almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Arz kesintisi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 (piyasaya petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi) mevcut fiyatlara tam yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki \u015foklar\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2019\u2019da Suudi petrol tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar Brent vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bir g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 y\u00fckseltmi\u015fti. Bo\u011faz\u0131n ablukas\u0131 ise k\u00fcresel arz \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ve kal\u0131c\u0131 etki yaratabilir. Bu nedenle sert fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler (fiyata ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7lar) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rama bekleniyor. Oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d; beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) erken 2022\u2019deki jeopolitik \u00e7alkant\u0131da 30\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131; benzer bir hareket olas\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar VIX\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir veya S&P 500 gibi geni\u015f endekslerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran hak) kullanarak portf\u00f6ylerini olas\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruyabilir (hedge: sigortalama).<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde para \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelir. Alt\u0131n \u015fu s\u0131ralar ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.450 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duruyor; sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 halinde yeni zirveler ihtimal dahilinde. Alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri veya alt\u0131na dayal\u0131 borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda (ETF: borsada hisse gibi al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan fon) opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar, bu g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
WSJ\u2019ye g\u00f6re bar\u0131\u015f t\u0131kan\u0131nca Beyaz Saray, \u0130ran\u2019a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de abluka se\u00e7eneklerini masaya ald\u0131. Risk: petrol arz \u015foku, Brent\/WTI opsiyonlar\u0131, VIX s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, altinda yeni zirveler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44405"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44405\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}