ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri 21 saat sonunda anla\u015fma \u00e7\u0131kmadan bitince riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f artt\u0131 ve EUR\/USD geriledi. Parite, pazartesi a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bo\u015fluk (gap; fiyat\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re arada i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeden daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dan a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) sonras\u0131 Asya saatlerinde 1,1670 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, \u0130slamabad\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin iki taraf\u0131n da kabul edece\u011fi bir anla\u015fma \u00fcretmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Vance, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah pe\u015finde ko\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair net ve ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fcvence istedi\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na giren \u00e7\u0131kan gemilere abluka ba\u015flataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. CENTCOM (ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131; Orta Do\u011fu b\u00f6lgesinden sorumlu askeri komuta), kuvvetlerin pazartesi TS\u0130 21:00\u2019de (10:00 ET \/ 14:00 GMT) \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giren ve \u00e7\u0131kan t\u00fcm deniz trafi\u011fine abluka uygulamaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran heyetinin g\u00fcvenini kazanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve karar\u0131n art\u0131k Washington\u2019da oldu\u011funu belirtti. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na yakla\u015fan askeri gemilerin ate\u015fkesi ihlal etmi\u015f say\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u201ckararl\u0131\u201d bir yan\u0131tla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve yakla\u015fan ABD ablukas\u0131yla birlikte, klasik bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (kriz d\u00f6neminde daha az riskli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelim) aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talep art\u0131yor. EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1670\u2019e gerilemesi bunu yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithalat\u0131na daha ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131 Euro\u2019yu bask\u0131ya a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Opsiyon (belirli vadede belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD sat\u0131m (put; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 almay\u0131 ya da \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha uzak, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi zor) al\u0131m (call; fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
En do\u011frudan etki ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclecek; burada hemen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bullish; y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi) bir duru\u015f gerekli. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kritik bir dar bo\u011faz; ge\u00e7mi\u015f veriler, k\u00fcresel petrol ve petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri t\u00fcketiminin %20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131n buradan ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Tam ya da k\u0131smi bir abluka bile ciddi bir arz \u015foku (arz\u0131n ani d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesi) yarat\u0131r. Bu nedenle ana i\u015flem fikri, WTI ve Brent ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (futures; ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) uzun pozisyon (fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazan\u00e7) almak veya al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu kullanmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019nin ilk aylar\u0131nda, jeopolitik gerilim WTI fiyat\u0131n\u0131 birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 90 dolardan 130 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu \u00f6rne\u011fe bakarak petrol\u00fcn 2025 zirvelerini h\u0131zl\u0131 test etmesi olas\u0131. Bu senaryoda enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hisseleri, borsada az say\u0131da \u201csavunmac\u0131 s\u0131\u011f\u0131nak\u201dtan (piyasa d\u00fc\u015ferken g\u00f6rece daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 sekt\u00f6r) biri haline gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Artan riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n k\u00fcresel hisse senetleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmas\u0131 beklenir; bu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde (short; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7) f\u0131rsatlar do\u011furabilir. Jeopolitik belirsizlik ile y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00fczerinde fiili bir maliyet (vergi etkisi) yarat\u0131r ve \u015firket k\u00e2r beklentilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eker. Bu nedenle S&P 500 ve Euro Stoxx 50 gibi geni\u015f endekslerde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz abluka tehdidiyle ABD\u2013\u0130ran masas\u0131 da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131: riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f h\u0131zland\u0131, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, EUR\/USD 1,1670\u2019e indi. Petrol i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosu, hisse endekslerinde put\/short f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44404","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44404"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44404\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44404"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44404"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44404"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}