ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), kuvvetlerin pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc TS\u0130 17:00\u2019de (ET 10:00, GMT 14:00) \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giren ve limanlardan \u00e7\u0131kan t\u00fcm deniz trafi\u011fine abluka uygulamaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu. Abluka, Arabistan K\u00f6rfezi ve Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki \u0130ran limanlar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayacak.<\/p>\n
CENTCOM, uygulaman\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giren veya \u00e7\u0131kan t\u00fcm gemilere e\u015fit \u015fekilde uygulanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki limanlara gidip gelen ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en gemilerin \u201cseyir serbestisi\u201d (uluslararas\u0131 sularda gemilerin serbest\u00e7e ge\u00e7i\u015f yapabilmesi) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir k\u0131s\u0131tlamayla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Ticari gemi i\u015fletmecilerine, abluka ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce resm\u00ee bir duyuruyla daha fazla ayr\u0131nt\u0131 verilecek. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, hafta sonu ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 durdurmaya y\u00f6nelik ge\u00e7ici anla\u015fma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131) bozuldu\u011funa dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 ve abluka duyurusuna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f bekleniyordu. WTI, \u201cWest Texas Intermediate\u201d\u0131n k\u0131saltmas\u0131d\u0131r; ABD kaynakl\u0131 ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr ve piyasalarda referans fiyat (benchmark: di\u011fer fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterge) olarak izlenir. WTI teslimat ve depolamas\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan merkez ise Cushing\u2019dir (ABD\u2019de petrol depolama\/da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m noktas\u0131).<\/p>\n
WTI fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla arz ve talep, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme, jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, OPEC kararlar\u0131 (petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkeler grubu) ve ABD Dolar\u0131 etkiler. ABD stok verileri de fiyatlar\u0131 etkiler: API (American Petroleum Institute) sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc, EIA (Energy Information Administration) \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc rapor yay\u0131mlar. Bu iki raporun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 zamanlar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %75\u2019inde birbirine %1 i\u00e7inde yak\u0131n olur.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na ablukas\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcn ba\u015flamas\u0131yla, piyasa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda WTI ve Brent ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir s\u0131\u00e7rama bekleniyor. Bu ad\u0131m do\u011frudan arz\u0131 hedefledi\u011fi i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel enerji piyasas\u0131nda belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131r. T\u00fcrev piyasa (vadeli i\u015flemler ve opsiyonlar gibi ara\u00e7lar\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc piyasa) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, haftan\u0131n ilk i\u015flemlerinden itibaren dalgalanman\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta hareket etmesi) artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu ablukan\u0131n piyasadan \u00f6nemli bir petrol miktar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi bekleniyor; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 2026 ba\u015flar\u0131na kadar g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,7 milyon varil ihracat yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyordu. K\u00fcresel ham petrol stoklar\u0131 be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n biraz alt\u0131nda seyrederken, bu ani arz \u015foku (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede arz\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi) daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etki yaratabilir. Piyasada bu t\u00fcr bir kesintiyi kar\u015f\u0131layacak \u201ctampon\u201d \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in fiyatlar yukar\u0131 itilebilir.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bu y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisine en do\u011frudan tepki, WTI ve Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak. Ayr\u0131ca dalgalanma \u00fczerinden i\u015flem yapmak da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX), petrol opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen ve piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren endekstir; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde 50\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir. OVX \u00fczerinde call almak veya \u201cuzun volatilite\u201d (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) kurmak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n jeopolitik \u015foklara tepkisi ge\u00e7mi\u015fte sert olmu\u015ftu. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2019\u2019da Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik drone sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 tek g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %15\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2022\u2019de Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 da ham petrol\u00fc uzun s\u00fcre varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu \u00f6rnekler, bu hafta \u00e7ift haneli oranlarda bir fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Brent ile WTI aras\u0131ndaki fark (spread: iki fiyat aras\u0131ndaki makas) izlenmeli; kesintiye daha yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in Brent\u2019in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans g\u00f6stermesi beklenebilir. Bu durumda \u201cBrent uzun \/ WTI k\u0131sa\u201d (long\/short: biri y\u00fckseli\u015fe, di\u011feri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak) makas i\u015flemi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Ayn\u0131 zamanda yak\u0131t maliyetlerine hassas sekt\u00f6rlerde zay\u0131flama g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011finden, havayolu ve deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015firketi hisselerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) korunma (hedge: riski dengeleme) veya f\u0131rsat ama\u00e7l\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Abluka duyurusunda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fin k\u0131s\u0131tlanmayaca\u011f\u0131 yazsa da as\u0131l izlenecek risk buras\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019dan gelebilecek ve bo\u011fazdan g\u00fcnl\u00fck ge\u00e7en yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tehdit edecek bir misilleme sinyali, ikinci ve \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu \u201cu\u00e7 risk\u201d (tail risk: olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ama etkisi \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck risk) nedeniyle, ilk y\u00fckseli\u015ften sonra bile uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 koruma e\u011filimi artabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc API ve \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc EIA stok raporlar\u0131 kritik olacak. Piyasa, ham petrol stoklar\u0131ndaki her d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe (draw: stoklar\u0131n azalmas\u0131) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 duyarl\u0131 olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu, arz\u0131n daha da s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frular. Beklentiden b\u00fcy\u00fck bir stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, y\u00fckseli\u015fi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde yeni \u015fok dalgas\u0131 kap\u0131da: CENTCOM, pazartesi 17.00\u2019de \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa abluka ba\u015flat\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz serbest, ancak 1,7 milyon varil arz riski WTI\/Brent\u2019te sert y\u00fckseli\u015f yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44403","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44403"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44403\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44403"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44403"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44403"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}