AUD\/USD, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bo\u015flukla (gap-down; fiyat\u0131n \u00f6nceki kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131ktan sonra hafif y\u00fckselse de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede kald\u0131 ve Pazartesi Asya saatlerinde 0,7010 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130slamabad\u2019daki 21 saatlik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131nda bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 olmadan sona ermesi sonras\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) artt\u0131 ve parite zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, m\u00fczakerelerin iki taraf i\u00e7in de kabul edilebilir bir anla\u015fma \u00fcretmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah pe\u015finde ko\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair net ve ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fcvence istedi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ise ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na giren ya da \u00e7\u0131kan t\u00fcm gemileri \u201cabluka alt\u0131na alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf, \u201cyap\u0131c\u0131 giri\u015fimlere\u201d ra\u011fmen ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran heyetinin g\u00fcvenini kazanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve sonraki ad\u0131mlar\u0131n Washington\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, piyasalardaki belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Enerji maliyetlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f, Avustralya\u2019da enflasyon endi\u015felerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Ayl\u0131k enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi (ayl\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 izleyen veri) martta rekor %1,3 oldu. Bu, 2025 sonundan beri fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA), faizi 50 baz puan (0,50 y\u00fczde puan) art\u0131rarak %4,10\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; piyasalar may\u0131sta bir art\u0131\u015f daha bekliyor. 10 Nisan\u2019da ASX 30 G\u00fcn Vadeli Bankalararas\u0131 Nakit Faiz Kontratlar\u0131\u2019nda (gelecekteki faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) May\u0131s 2026 vadesi 95,765 seviyesindeydi; bu da bir sonraki RBA toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizin %4,35\u2019e y\u00fckselme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %64 oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131, g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 (flight to safety) h\u0131zland\u0131rarak ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Piyasan\u0131n \u201ckorku g\u00f6stergesi\u201d VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in oynakl\u0131k endeksi; beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 25\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek belirsizli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, Avustralya dolar\u0131 gibi risk alg\u0131s\u0131na duyarl\u0131 para birimlerini daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel petrol\u00fcn %20\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ablukaya alma tehdidi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyici. Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da 2025 sonlar\u0131nda biriken enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Bu enerji \u015foku, RBA\u2019n\u0131n bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tehdit alt\u0131ndayken enflasyonla m\u00fccadele etmek zorunda kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasa yeni bir RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlasa da, k\u00fcresel riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f havas\u0131 bunu g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki veriler, \u00c7in\u2019in imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n (Sat\u0131nalma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) beklenmedik \u015fekilde daralmaya ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, Avustralya ihracat\u0131na talebin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131na ek olarak AUD \u00fczerinde ikinci bir bask\u0131 katman\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in oynakl\u0131ktaki bu sert art\u0131\u015f, AUD\/USD put opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine uygun) alarak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi de\u011ferlendirmeyi cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu opsiyonlarda prim (opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) y\u00fckselse de, tansiyon daha da artarsa s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle (zarar\u0131n \u00f6nden bilindi\u011fi) pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar. Paritenin yak\u0131nda 0,6900 seviyesini test etmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bir ba\u015fka yakla\u015f\u0131m, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f etkisini b\u00fcy\u00fcten \u00e7apraz kurlara (iki para biriminin USD olmadan birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 fiyat\u0131) odaklanmak; \u00f6rne\u011fin AUD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon almak. Japon yeni, jeopolitik krizlerde genellikle ABD dolar\u0131ndan da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fer kazan\u0131r. Bu i\u015flem, RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin do\u011frudan etkisini azalt\u0131r ve tamamen g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fa odaklan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok geli\u015fme: ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131 tehdidi riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 tetikledi. G\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar AUD\/USD\u2019yi 0,7010\u2019da bask\u0131larken Brent 120$+, VIX 25+ ve RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri bile g\u00f6lgede kald\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44402","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44402"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44402\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44402"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}