S&P 500, T\u00dcFE (CPI) verisinin korkuldu\u011fu kadar y\u00fcksek gelmemesiyle y\u00fckseldi. Piyasalar, istihdam piyasas\u0131n\u0131n durumunu da dikkate alarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda daha sert bir tutum (daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve daha b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015flar) benimsemeyece\u011fini fiyatlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ran\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeyi hedefleyen Pakistan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin iddialara \u00e7evrildi. Piyasalar\u0131n, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik deniz ge\u00e7idi) s\u00fcren sorunlar\u0131 ve baz\u0131 \u00f6nemli b\u00f6lgelerde ate\u015fkese uyulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberleri ikinci plana itti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi; ayr\u0131ca Kuomintang muhalefetinden bir liderin \u015eanghay\u2019\u0131 ziyaret etti\u011fine dair at\u0131flar yap\u0131ld\u0131. Daha geni\u015f b\u00f6lgesel tablo kapsam\u0131nda Suudi Arabistan ve BAE\u2019nin (Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri) ad\u0131 ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n
\u0130RAN\u2019\u0131n dondurulmu\u015f varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n (yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda eri\u015fimi k\u0131s\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f para ve finansal varl\u0131klar) m\u00fczakereler \u00f6ncesinde serbest b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair, IRNA\u2019ya (\u0130ran resmi haber ajans\u0131) dayand\u0131r\u0131lan haberler de an\u0131ld\u0131. Hidrokarbon ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n (petrol ve do\u011fal gaz arz\u0131\/tedariki) yeniden h\u0131zlanabilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklentiler kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Hafta boyunca gelen yeni tehditlere piyasan\u0131n tepkisinin her seferinde daha da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, buna cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn de dahil oldu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n tamamen bitti\u011fine dair bir kanaat olu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn 6.200\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131na inanmas\u0131n\u0131n etkili oldu\u011fu ifade edildi. \u00d6zellikle Mart 2026 \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u00f6netilebilir seviyede %3,6 gelmesi bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekledi. Bu g\u00fcvenin, piyasan\u0131n 2025\u2019teki gerilimler boyunca Fed\u2019in g\u00fcvercin duru\u015funu (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na mesafeli, daha destekleyici politika) do\u011fru \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesine dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fcn, \u0130ran gerilimindeki yat\u0131\u015fma oldu\u011fu; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Pakistan \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden olumlu sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131na bahis oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Risk alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki bu de\u011fi\u015fimin piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddeti) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, VIX\u2019in (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 2025 sonundaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma zirvesinde 35\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyelerden bug\u00fcn 18 civar\u0131na geriledi\u011fi belirtildi. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in (fiyat\u0131 dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler), opsiyon primlerinin (opsiyonu sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) d\u00fc\u015fmesi; b\u00fcy\u00fck ve daha istikrarl\u0131 hisselerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) satmay\u0131 veya put kredi spread\u2019i (daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put sat\u0131p, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put alarak prim geliri hedefleyen, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 strateji) kurmay\u0131 cazip hale getirdi. Bunun, \u201cpiyasan\u0131n buradan sert d\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fi\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelir elde etmek anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in duru\u015funun bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 destekledi\u011fi, CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un (vadeli i\u015flemler fiyatlar\u0131ndan Fed faiz beklentisini hesaplayan g\u00f6sterge) yaz boyunca faizin sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85 olarak g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Merkez bankas\u0131ndan gelen bu politika istikrar\u0131n\u0131n piyasa pani\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131 bir tampon i\u015flevi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi. Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n destekleyici olmas\u0131yla, geni\u015f piyasa i\u00e7in daha olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn yataydan yukar\u0131 oldu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, jeopolitik gerilimin azalmas\u0131yla WTI ham petrol\u00fcn (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden 80\u2019li seviyelere gerilemesinin daha spesifik bir f\u0131rsat yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi. Sava\u015f endi\u015fesiyle sert y\u00fckselen enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) put alman\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fi belirtildi. D\u00fcnya bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131k\u00e7a, bu varl\u0131klar\u0131n genel piyasaya g\u00f6re daha zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
\u0130yimserli\u011fin artsa da a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 co\u015fkuya (kontrols\u00fcz risk alma) d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fi; kal\u0131c\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fczakere edildi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Bu nedenle y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisinin korunabilece\u011fi, ancak bunun SOXX yar\u0131 iletken ETF\u2019inde (\u00e7ip sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc izleyen borsa fonu) al\u0131m spread\u2019i (call spread: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren, kazanc\u0131 ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) gibi y\u00f6ntemlerle ifade edilmesinin uygun olabilece\u011fi belirtildi. Helium tedarik zincirlerinin (\u00fcretimden teslimata uzanan arz a\u011f\u0131) toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n bu alana destek olabilece\u011fi, bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n da diplomasinin beklenmedik \u015fekilde bozulmas\u0131 halinde riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S&P 500, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 T\u00dcFE ve Fed\u2019in sertle\u015fmeyece\u011fi fiyatlamas\u0131yla 6.200\u2019\u00fc a\u015ft\u0131. Pakistan-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri iyimserli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131, VIX 18\u2019e indi; opsiyonlarda put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, enerji ETF\u2019lerinde koruma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44399","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44399"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44399\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44399"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44399"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44399"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}