{"id":44393,"date":"2026-04-11T04:53:44","date_gmt":"2026-04-11T04:53:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/td-securities-mart-ayinda-ihracatta-soguma-stoklama-kaynakli-ithalatta-artis-bekliyor-artan-maliyetler-uretimi-ve-ihracat-talebini-tehdit-ediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-04-11T04:53:44","modified_gmt":"2026-04-11T04:53:44","slug":"td-securities-mart-ayinda-ihracatta-soguma-stoklama-kaynakli-ithalatta-artis-bekliyor-artan-maliyetler-uretimi-ve-ihracat-talebini-tehdit-ediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-mart-ayinda-ihracatta-soguma-stoklama-kaynakli-ithalatta-artis-bekliyor-artan-maliyetler-uretimi-ve-ihracat-talebini-tehdit-ediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities, Mart ay\u0131nda ihracatta so\u011fuma, stoklama kaynakl\u0131 ithalatta art\u0131\u015f bekliyor; artan maliyetler \u00fcretimi ve ihracat talebini tehdit ediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

TD Securities, \u00c7in\u2019in ocak ve \u015fubattaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrin ard\u0131ndan mart ihracat\u0131nda h\u0131z kesme bekliyor. \u00dcretim girdilerindeki artan maliyetler, \u00fcretimi yava\u015flatabilir ve k\u0131sa vadede ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurabilir.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2013\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle yetkililer temel \u00fcr\u00fcn ve emtialarda stok yap\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (ileride ihtiya\u00e7 i\u00e7in al\u0131m yap\u0131p depolama) art\u0131r\u0131rsa, ithalat beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelebilir. Ayn\u0131 maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131, martta sanayi \u00fcretimi (fabrikalar\u0131n toplam \u00fcretimi) sabit kalsa bile \u015firketlerin \u00fcretim planlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n

Q1 Growth Outlook And Consumer Demand<\/h3>\n

Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, t\u00fcketiciler CNY (\u00c7in Yeni Y\u0131l\u0131) tatilinde harcamay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7ektiyse ve t\u00fcketici takas program\u0131 (eski \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc verip indirimli yeni \u00fcr\u00fcn alma) destekleri erken ba\u015flat\u0131ld\u0131ysa daha zay\u0131f kalabilir. TD Securities, ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (ekonominin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,8 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; \u00e7eyre\u011fin ilk b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde ihracat ve imalat\u0131n (\u00fcretim sekt\u00f6r\u00fc) deste\u011fi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

2025\u2019te jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019i emtia stoklamaya itti\u011fini ve ithalat verilerinde belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131ndaki gerginlik artarken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda benzer bir \u201cstratejik al\u0131m\u201d e\u011filimi olu\u015fup olu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izliyoruz. Mart 2026 Caixin \u0130malat PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 50 alt\u0131 daralma) 50,9 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme b\u00f6lgesinin hemen \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Ancak girdi fiyatlar\u0131 alt endeksi (hammaddelerin maliyet e\u011filimi) 18 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

H\u0131zlanan stok yapma riski, temel sanayi ve enerji emtialar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir potansiyele i\u015faret ediyor. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (ileride teslim i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) son bir ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 92 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli kamu destekli al\u0131mlar\u0131n erken sinyali olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ham petrol veya bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynama) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir ya da al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) ile riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131p olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften fayda hedefleyebilir.<\/p>\n

Positioning For Costs Currency And Volatility<\/h3>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek girdi maliyetleri zamanla \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (marjlar\u0131) s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r ve 2025\u2019in ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclen dinami\u011fe benzer \u015fekilde ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir. Bu durum, imalat ve ihracat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek \u00c7in hisse endekslerinde korunma (hedge; zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlara i\u015faret ediyor. FTSE China A50 Endeksi\u2019ni izleyen bir ETF\u2019de (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, olas\u0131 yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan bir pozisyonlama sunar.<\/p>\n

Emtia ithalat faturas\u0131 y\u00fckselirken ihracat gelirleri bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcrse, bu ayr\u0131\u015fma \u00c7in yuan\u0131 \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. USD\/CNH kurunda (dolar\/\u00c7in yuan\u0131; CNH offshore, yani \u00c7in d\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren yuan) y\u00fckseli\u015fe, al\u0131m spreadleri (iki opsiyonla kurulan, maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) gibi ara\u00e7larla pozisyon almak anlaml\u0131 olabilir; bu yap\u0131 yuan\u0131n kademeli de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefler. Artan belirsizlik, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) yararlanan stratejileri de g\u00fcndeme getirir; \u00f6rne\u011fin belirli emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hisselerde straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu) almak, sert hareketlerden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in\u2019de mart ihracat\u0131nda frene bas\u0131labilir: girdi maliyetleri y\u00fckseliyor, PMI 50,9\u2019da. Jeopolitik risk stoklamay\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p ithalat\u0131 \u015fi\u015firebilir; emtia, yuan ve volatilitede f\u0131rsatlar do\u011fuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44393","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44393"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44393\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}