Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in CFTC (ABD Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Komisyonu) verileri, EUR\u2019da ticari olmayan (spek\u00fclatif) net pozisyonlar\u0131n -7,5 bin kontrat oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bir \u00f6nceki veri 0,5 bin kontratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu, EUR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde spek\u00fclatif yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir net al\u0131c\u0131 (long) pozisyondan net sat\u0131c\u0131 (short) pozisyona ge\u00e7ti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130ki veri aras\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim -8,0 bin kontrat.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019daki spek\u00fclatif pozisyonlanma k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir net al\u0131mdan net sat\u0131ma d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Bu, aylard\u0131r ilk kez b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n grup olarak Euro\u2019nun de\u011fer kayb\u0131na oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, tek para birimini destekleyen hik\u00e2yenin zay\u0131flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu negatif (ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131) d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn arkas\u0131nda, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fma (gidi\u015fat\u0131n farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) olabilir. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Mart 2026 enflasyonu %1,7 ile Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) hedefinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; bu da y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimi ihtimalini g\u00fcndeme getirdi. ABD\u2019de ise ge\u00e7en haftaki Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yeni istihdam say\u0131s\u0131) verisi 215 bin art\u0131\u015fla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi; bu tablo, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201cveriye ba\u011fl\u0131\u201d para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funu destekliyor.<\/p>\n
ECB ile Fed aras\u0131ndaki politika fark\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n ana oda\u011f\u0131 haline geliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ECB\u2019nin zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ad\u0131m atabilece\u011fini, Fed\u2019in ise beklemede kalabilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor. B\u00f6yle bir ayr\u0131\u015fma genellikle EUR\/USD kurunda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir finansal varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu ortam, Euro\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften ya da oynakl\u0131ktaki art\u0131\u015ftan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. EUR\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketi hedefleme imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar; 1,0500 gibi psikolojik seviyeler (piyasada \u00f6zellikle takip edilen yuvarlak seviler) izlenebilir. Daha agresif yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Euro vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa (short: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f) pozisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
Euro opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %8,2 ile son alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, piyasan\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerini fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu sinyal, yatay seyrin (konsolidasyon) sona eriyor olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ECB\u2019den gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemesi; daha g\u00fcvercin (dovish: faiz indirimine daha a\u00e7\u0131k) bir duru\u015fu do\u011frulayacak ifadeleri takip etmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: Euro\u2019da spek\u00fclatif r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. CFTC\u2019ye g\u00f6re net pozisyon -7,5 bin kontrata indi; long\u2019dan short\u2019a ilk g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ge\u00e7i\u015f. ECB faiz indirimi beklentisi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileriyle EUR\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44383","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44383"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44383\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}