Japonya CFTC verileri, JPY\u2019de ticari olmayan (spek\u00fclat\u00f6r) net pozisyonun -72,9 binden -93,7 bine geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, \u00f6nceki raporlama d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir net k\u0131sa pozisyona (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yenin de\u011fer kaybedece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnerek \u201csat\u0131\u015f\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlanmas\u0131na) i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, Japon Yeni\u2019ne kar\u015f\u0131 net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn daha da netle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu hareket, piyasan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yenin daha da zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu alg\u0131n\u0131n ana nedeni, Japonya ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler (\u00f6zellikle ABD) aras\u0131ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek faiz fark\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu artan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle, USD\/JPY kurunun y\u00fckselmesinden faydalanan stratejiler g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. ABD\u2019de politika faizi (Federal Funds rate: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hedefledi\u011fi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz) %4,50 seviyesindeyken Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizi %0,10\u2019da. Bu tablo, yen sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki i\u015flemleri destekliyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (t\u00fcrev: de\u011feri kur\/faiz gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread: maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda iki al\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte kullanma stratejisi) kurmak, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131lman\u0131n yollar\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Resmi m\u00fcdahale riskine kar\u015f\u0131 dikkatli olmak gerekiyor; USD\/JPY \u015fu anda 158,75 civar\u0131nda. 2025 bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla geriye d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, 2024 sonlar\u0131nda kur 152 seviyesini h\u0131zla a\u015farken Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yen taraf\u0131nda sert ama k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli toparlanmalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, yen sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlarda k\u00e2r hedefi belirlemek ve zarar-kes (stop-loss: fiyat belirli bir seviyeye gelince pozisyonu otomatik kapatarak zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan emir) kullanmak, ani ters hareket riskini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n
2023 ve 2024 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen e\u011filim, yenin uzun s\u00fcre zay\u0131flayabilse de bu zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u0131k s\u0131k sert dalgalanmalarla geldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc opsiyonlar azami riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131na (kurun y\u00fckselmesine) maruz kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca 1 ayl\u0131k USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131kta (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi gelecekteki dalgalanma) hafif art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketi fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
CFTC\u2019ye g\u00f6re spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin JPY net k\u0131sa pozisyonu -93,7 bine derinle\u015fti: Piyasa yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na oynuyor. Faiz fark\u0131 USD\/JPY\u2019yi desteklerken, 158,75\u2019te m\u00fcdahale riski; opsiyon ve stop-loss \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44381","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44381"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44381\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44381"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44381"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44381"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}