Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.763 dolar civar\u0131nda kald\u0131, %0,01 y\u00fckseldi ve haftay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 art\u0131da kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Pakistan\u2019da ba\u015flamas\u0131 beklenen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler \u00f6ncesinde zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na ve iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkesin risk alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) alt\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik deniz ge\u00e7idi) kapatmad\u0131; ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019dan yetkililer Pakistan\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in yola \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD verilerine g\u00f6re Mart T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; \u015eubat\u2019ta %2,4\u2019t\u00fc. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,5\u2019ten %2,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; %2,7 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Prime Market Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, Fed fon faizinin (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bankalara uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politika faizi) 2026 boyunca %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 53,3\u2019ten 47,6\u2019ya gerilerken, 12 ayl\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %3,8\u2019den %4,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterir) %0,13 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 98,66\u2019ya indi ve d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. Alt\u0131nda 4.800 dolar seviyesi diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) olarak izlenirken; 4.750 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkma, 4.700 dolar\u0131 ve 20 ile 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131 (k\u0131sa\/orta vadeli trendi g\u00f6steren ortalama fiyat) olan 4.674\u20134.662 band\u0131n\u0131 hedef haline getirebilir. 4.800 dolar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ise 4.857 ve ard\u0131ndan 4.900 dolar\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede ana konu, zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131 ile \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d enflasyonun (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen, y\u00fcksek kalmaya e\u011filimli enflasyon) Fed\u2019i bekle-g\u00f6r pozisyonunda tutmas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fme. Dolar\u0131n 98,66 ile d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n dibine yak\u0131n seyri alt\u0131n i\u00e7in destekleyici olurken, %3,3\u2019l\u00fck T\u00dcFE verisi faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu belirsizlik, volatiliteden (fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131) yararlanan opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor; \u00f6rne\u011fin straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte al\u0131n\u0131r; fiyat g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket ederse kazan\u00e7 hedeflenir) gibi.<\/p>\n
Pakistan\u2019daki m\u00fczakerelerin sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 veya H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 halinde alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeli bulunuyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, 2020\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen benzer Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerinde alt\u0131na \u201crisk primi\u201d (jeopolitik risk nedeniyle fiyata eklenen y\u00fckseli\u015f) k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede eklenebildi. ABD t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin 47,6 ile \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye gerilemesi, g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede 4.800 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131lmaya y\u00f6nelik al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) veya call spread (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call\u2019un birlikte kullan\u0131lmas\u0131yla maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren strateji) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ate\u015fkes sa\u011flanmas\u0131 durumunda fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc riski g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. %3,3\u2019l\u00fck inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon, 2023\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 veya y\u00fcksek faiz yanl\u0131s\u0131) duru\u015fu planlanandan uzun s\u00fcre korumas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.800 dolar psikolojik seviyesinin (piyasan\u0131n yuvarlak rakamlara \u00f6nem vermesi) \u00fczerinde kalmakta zorlanmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 4.700 dolar hedefli sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) fiyat geri \u00e7ekilmesine kar\u015f\u0131 konumlanma yolu olabilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde, resmi kaynaklardan gelen istikrarl\u0131 talep de \u00f6nemli. 2026 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin son veriler, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n son y\u0131llarda olu\u015fan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve belirgin fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerini al\u0131mlarla kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu kurumsal talep (b\u00fcy\u00fck kurumlar\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor ve 4.660\u2019l\u0131 seviyelere do\u011fru sert sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrme ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131n 4.763 dolarda; haftal\u0131k %2\u2019ye yak\u0131n prim. Dolar 98,66 ile zay\u0131f, ancak \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d %3,3 T\u00dcFE Fed\u2019i bekle-g\u00f6rde tutuyor. 4.800 diren\u00e7; Pakistan\u2019daki ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri sonu\u00e7 belirleyecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44378","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44378","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44378"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44378\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44378"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44378"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44378"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}