DBS Group Research, Singapur Para Otoritesi\u2019nin (MAS) 14 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Singapur dolar\u0131 nominal efektif d\u00f6viz kuru (SGD NEER: Singapur dolar\u0131n\u0131n ticaret ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ortalama de\u011feri) politika band\u0131n\u0131n e\u011fimini (band\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde hangi h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirilece\u011fini g\u00f6steren ayar) k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesini bekliyor. Bu ad\u0131m, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l yap\u0131lan e\u011fim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirecek.<\/p>\n
Bu beklenti, Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 ABD dolar\u0131 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi ve ihracat\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131yla ithal enflasyona (d\u00f6viz kuru ve ithal girdi maliyetleri \u00fczerinden \u00fclkeye ta\u015f\u0131nan fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) oda\u011f\u0131n artabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayan\u0131yor. MAS\u2019in ayr\u0131ca enflasyon tahminlerini g\u00fcncellemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) tahmininin %1\u20132 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan %1,5\u20132,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltilmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. T\u00dcFE\u2013T\u00fcm Kalemler (CPI-All Items: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksinin genel toplam\u0131) tahmininin de daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
MAS, politika karar\u0131yla ayn\u0131 zamanda 1\u00c726 \u00f6nc\u00fc GSYH (advance GDP: kesinle\u015fmemi\u015f ilk b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini) verisini a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. GSYH\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,4, \u00e7eyreklik bazda (mevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f: d\u00f6nemsel dalgalanmalar temizlenmi\u015f) %-1,1 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu, 4\u00c725\u2019teki y\u0131ll\u0131k %6,3 ve \u00e7eyreklik (mevsim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) %2,1 seviyelerine g\u00f6re yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
14 Nisan\u2019da MAS\u2019in politika duru\u015funu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak (enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kur\/finansal ko\u015fullar hedeflemek) SGD NEER politika band\u0131n\u0131n e\u011fimini az da olsa art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu hamle, 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen gev\u015femeyi tersine \u00e7evirecek. Ama\u00e7, Singapur dolar\u0131n\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 fakat s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na izin vererek fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamak.<\/p>\n
\u00d6ncelik, \u00f6zellikle Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7eyrek boyunca varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 ABD dolar\u0131 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla, ithal enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye kayd\u0131. Son veriler de bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 destekliyor: Singapur\u2019da petrol d\u0131\u015f\u0131 yurt i\u00e7i ihracat (NODX: petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ihracat) Mart 2026\u2019da %4,5 artarak ekonominin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kurla da ayakta kalabildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, merkez bankas\u0131na enflasyona odaklanma alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Singapur dolar\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. SGD al\u0131m opsiyonu (call opsiyonu: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (hawkish: s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir a\u00e7\u0131klama para birimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, MAS\u2019in 2022\u2019de beklenmedik \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan SGD, izleyen \u00fc\u00e7 ayda USD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 belirgin de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bekledi\u011fimiz y\u0131ll\u0131k %5,4 seviyesindeki 1\u00c726 \u00f6nc\u00fc GSYH verisi de s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 destekliyor. 2025 sonuna g\u00f6re yava\u015flama olsa da ekonomi sa\u011flam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde vadeli d\u00f6viz s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri (forward: ileri tarihte kurdan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) ile SGD\u2019de uzun pozisyon (long: y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle ta\u015f\u0131ma) kurulmas\u0131 faydal\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu politika de\u011fi\u015fimi, yurt i\u00e7i faizlerde de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Singapur Gecelik Faiz Ortalama Oran\u0131\u2019nda (SORA: Singapur\u2019da gecelik i\u015flemlerin ortalama faizi; g\u00f6sterge faiz) y\u00fckseli\u015f beklemeli. Faiz takas\u0131 (interest rate swap: sabit faiz ile de\u011fi\u015fken faizin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00fczerinden bu beklentiye pozisyon almak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Mart ay\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun %2,1 olmas\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek faizleri destekliyor.<\/p>\n
SGD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) a\u00e7\u0131klamaya kadar y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. Kritik unsur, MAS\u2019in enflasyon tahminlerini bekledi\u011fimiz gibi yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon tahmininin %1,5\u20132,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltilmesi, bu \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc teyit eder ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Singapur dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fc destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol 100 dolarda, ihracat g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc: MAS 14 Nisan\u2019da SGD NEER band e\u011fimini hafif art\u0131r\u0131p 2025 gev\u015femesini geri alabilir. Enflasyon tahminleri yukar\u0131; SGD long\/opsiyon ve SORA\u2019da y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44376","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44376"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44376\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44376"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44376"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}