ABD\u2019nin ayl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi Mart ay\u0131nda **-164 milyar dolar** a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. Bu rakam, **-156,75 milyar dolar** beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Beklentiden b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u00e7\u0131k, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin daha fazla bor\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da genellikle **daha fazla Hazine tahvili arz\u0131** (piyasaya daha \u00e7ok tahvil s\u00fcr\u00fclmesi) anlam\u0131na gelir. Arz art\u0131nca tahvil fiyatlar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman d\u00fc\u015fer, **getiri (yield: tahvilin faizi)** y\u00fckselir. Bu nedenle genel olarak faizlerde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu mali veri, izlenen genel e\u011filimle uyumlu. ABD\u2019nin ulusal borcu k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce **36 trilyon dolar\u0131** a\u015ft\u0131. **10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi** de son bir ayda **%4,2\u2019den %4,45\u2019e** y\u00fckseldi. Daha geni\u015f b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin daha da artabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
**T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (derivatives: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, **sabit getirili** \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde (fixed-income: faizi \u00f6nceden belli tahvil benzeri \u00fcr\u00fcnler) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senaryoyu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin **Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde** (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) k\u0131sa pozisyon veya tahvil odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde **sat\u0131m opsiyonu** (put option: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran hak) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Artan tahvil arz\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu bask\u0131y\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Getirilerin y\u00fckselmesi, hisse piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in de olumsuz olabilir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc faizler artt\u0131k\u00e7a hisseler tahvillere k\u0131yasla daha az cazip hale gelebilir. Olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 **S&P 500** veya **Nasdaq 100** gibi endekslerde koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131, **hedge** (hedge: riski azaltmak i\u00e7in ters pozisyon alma) amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131labilir. **VIX** (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) da s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir; bu da **VIX vadeli i\u015flemleri** veya opsiyonlar\u0131nda f\u0131rsatlar yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te, kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle **kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon** (sticky inflation: kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen enflasyon) Fed\u2019i beklenenden uzun s\u00fcre **\u015fahin** (hawkish: s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) tutmaya zorlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Piyasa, mali politikan\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiledi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Mart ay\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine ve Fed\u2019in faiz indiriminde alan\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda, y\u00fcksek getiri ortam\u0131 yabanc\u0131 sermayeyi \u00e7ekerek **ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131** g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. **Dolar Endeksi (DXY)** (dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) **105,50** civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrediyor. **Daha g\u00fcvercin** (dovish: faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n, daha gev\u015fek politika) merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolarda **al\u0131m opsiyonu** (call option: fiyat y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran hak) stratejileri daha cazip hale gelebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasay\u0131 sallad\u0131: ABD Mart\u2019ta 164 milyar dolarla beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. Daha fazla tahvil arz\u0131, y\u00fcksek getiri bask\u0131s\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu; dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken hisse ve VIX\u2019te hedge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44374","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44374"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44374\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}