ABD hisseleri cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. Dow yakla\u015f\u0131k 300 puan (%0,6) d\u00fc\u015ferek iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan yeniden 48.000 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi. S&P 500 %0,15 kaybederken, b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji \u015firketleri (piyasa de\u011feri \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek dev \u015firketler) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Nasdaq Bile\u015fik Endeksi %0,2 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc duyurulan iki haftal\u0131k ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinde (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici durmas\u0131) gerilim sinyali g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki (petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) tutumunu ele\u015ftirerek sadece birka\u00e7 tankerin ge\u00e7ti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Trump ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti almamas\u0131 konusunda uyard\u0131. Bu arada \u0130srail ile \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah L\u00fcbnan\u2019da kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi; \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 da L\u00fcbnan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik s\u00fcren sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ate\u015fkese ayk\u0131r\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Binyamin Netanyahu, \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019la m\u00fczakere etmeyi kabul etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance ise hafta sonu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri i\u00e7in cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130slamabad\u2019a gitti. Haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda Dow, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Nisan 2025\u2019ten bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fini kaydetmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
ABD T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi; t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini g\u00f6steren enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) martta ayl\u0131k %0,9, y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,3 artt\u0131. Bu, May\u0131s 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye oldu ve beklentilere paralel geldi. Enerji maliyetleri %10,9 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; benzin %21\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) ayl\u0131k %0,2, y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,6 artt\u0131 ve beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Fed\u2019in politika faizi (Fed funds rate; bankalar aras\u0131 gecelik faiz i\u00e7in hedef aral\u0131k) %3,5\u2013%3,75. Mart \u201cdot plot\u201d (Fed yetkililerinin faiz tahminlerini nokta olarak g\u00f6steren grafik) bu y\u0131l bir faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Michigan \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nin nisan ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni endeksi 53,3\u2019ten 47,6\u2019ya geriledi; beklenti 52 idi. Yan\u0131tlar\u0131n %98\u2019i ate\u015fkes haberinden \u00f6nce topland\u0131. Bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %3,8\u2019den %4,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; uzun vadeli beklenti %3,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol (ABD referans ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 99 dolar civar\u0131nda, Brent (k\u00fcresel referans ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) ise 96 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Benzin galon ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 4,30 dolard\u0131. Havayolu hisseleri, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yak\u0131t maliyeti umuduyla gelen \u00f6nceki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi.<\/p>\n
Petrol \u015fu anda en \u00f6nemli ba\u015fl\u0131k olmaya devam ediyor; WTI 99 dolar civar\u0131nda tutunuyor. Hafta sonu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin bozuldu\u011funa dair herhangi bir i\u015faret, fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zla 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00f6nelme ihtimali nedeniyle XLE gibi enerji ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon; bir endeksi\/sepete ba\u011fl\u0131 fon) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Tersine, k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131s\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019inin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak bir ilerleme, petrolde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u015flem fikrine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelmesi Fed\u2019e bir miktar alan a\u00e7t\u0131; ancak faizler konusunda rehavete kap\u0131lmamak gerekiyor. Piyasa, Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (gelecekteki faizi fiyatlayan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir hafta \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmezse bu e\u011filim s\u00fcrebilir. Fed\u2019in s\u00f6ylemi yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona s\u0131zd\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair kayg\u0131 vurgulan\u0131rsa, bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi beklentileri tamamen zay\u0131flayabilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye inerken, akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n hanehalk\u0131n\u0131 zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. ABD\u2019de benzin talebi ge\u00e7en ay %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu, t\u00fcketicinin harcamay\u0131 k\u0131smaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, \u201cpairs trade\u201d (iki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 z\u0131t y\u00f6nde pozisyonlayarak g\u00f6reli performansa oynama) t\u00fcr\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir: iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim hisselerinde (XLY; zorunlu olmayan harcamalara duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6r) sat\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131rken, temel t\u00fcketim hisselerinde (XLP; g\u0131da, temizlik gibi zorunlu \u00fcr\u00fcnler) al\u0131m opsiyonu almak; hanelerin \u201cistek\u201d yerine \u201cihtiya\u00e7\u201d \u00fcr\u00fcnlerini \u00f6nceleyece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Wall Street\u2019te sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc: Dow 48 bin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131, Nasdaq\u2019\u0131 dev teknoloji ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. \u0130ran gerilimi, 99 dolarl\u0131k petrol, y\u00fckselen T\u00dcFE ve d\u00fc\u015fen g\u00fcven Fed indirimi beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44372","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44372"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44372\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44372"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44372"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44372"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}