GBP\/USD, ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin Pakistan\u2019da ba\u015flamas\u0131yla risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. Parite %0,20 art\u0131\u015fla 1,3461 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de enflasyon Mart ay\u0131nda beklentilere paralel y\u00fckseldi. Piyasalar bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tek seferlik bir hareket olarak de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair iyimserlik, \u201criskli varl\u0131klara\u201d (getirisi y\u00fcksek ama dalgalanmas\u0131 fazla yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131) talebi art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu da sterlinin ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleriyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenip GBP\/USD\u2019yi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 benzer bir d\u00f6nem g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak bug\u00fcn bu iyimserlik zay\u0131flad\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc m\u00fczakereler son aylarda t\u0131kand\u0131. Bu duygu de\u011fi\u015fimi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l sterline destek veren jeopolitik etkinin art\u0131k daha zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki \u201cABD enflasyonu tek seferlik artar\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn do\u011fru olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan Mart 2026 ABD T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketici \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetlerinin fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini g\u00f6steren enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct\u00fc) verisi, man\u015fet enflasyonun %3,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasa ise %2,8 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) \u201c\u015fahin\u201d kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesiyle dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyon daha belirgin \u015fekilde geriledi; son veriler %2,3\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor ve bu seviye BoE\u2019nin (\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131) hedefin\u0259 daha yak\u0131n. Enflasyon yollar\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, BoE\u2019nin ABD\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha erken faiz indirebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu politika fark\u0131 GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha zay\u0131f sterline g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. GBP\/USD i\u00e7in 1 ayl\u0131k \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) son haftalarda yakla\u015f\u0131k %7\u2019den %9,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u201cPut opsiyonu\u201d (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almak veya \u201cput spread\u201d (maliyeti azaltmak i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki put\u2019u birlikte kullanma stratejisi) kurmak, prim maliyetleri y\u00fckselirken olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in daha kontroll\u00fc bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n
CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange: vadeli i\u015flemler ve opsiyon borsas\u0131) verileri de bu kaymay\u0131 do\u011fruluyor; sterlinde spek\u00fclatif \u201cnet k\u0131sa\u201d pozisyonlar (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekleyen pozisyonlar\u0131n artmas\u0131) 2025\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Piyasa, Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131, BoE\u2019nin ise politikay\u0131 gev\u015fetece\u011fi (faiz indirimi gibi) bir senaryoyu giderek daha fazla fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nem g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,3400 civar\u0131na toparlanmadan \u00e7ok, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck destek seviyelerinin test edilmesini olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik iyimserlikle GBP\/USD 1,3461\u2019e t\u0131rmansa da tablo k\u0131r\u0131lgan: ABD\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon Fed\u2019i \u015fahin tutuyor, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f BoE indirimi getiriyor. Oynakl\u0131k ve net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44371"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44371\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}