USD\/CAD, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerdeki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131. Piyasadaki temkinli hava, planlanan ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair belirsizlikten kaynakland\u0131. Parite 1,3833 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve iki haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan haftay\u0131 ilk kez d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY, dolar\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren g\u00f6sterge) 98,70 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131 ve Ocak\u2019tan bu yana en sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne gidiyordu. ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara ara verilmesi) risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; ancak ate\u015fkesin kal\u0131c\u0131 olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131na dair endi\u015feler i\u015flemlerde dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kanada istihdam verisine g\u00f6re Mart ay\u0131nda net istihdam 14,1 bin artt\u0131. Bir \u00f6nceki ay 83,9 binlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Piyasa beklentisi 15 bindi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %6,7\u2019de kald\u0131 ve %6,8 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC), son toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temel faiz oran\u0131) %2,25\u2019te tuttu. Yetkililer, petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015fokunun (enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131) etkilerini izliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de T\u00dcFE (CPI, t\u00fcketici enflasyonu g\u00f6stergesi) Mart ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,9 artt\u0131; \u00f6nceki ay %0,3\u2019t\u00fc. Y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE %2,4\u2019ten %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve beklentiyle uyumlu geldi. Bu durum, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri bir s\u00fcre de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin bu hafta sonu Pakistan\u2019da yap\u0131lmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri L\u00fcbnan\u2019da ate\u015fkes ve bloke edilmi\u015f \u0130ran varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n (eri\u015fimi k\u0131s\u0131tlanan yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 finansal varl\u0131klar) serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirdi. Donald Trump ise g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olursa sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flayabilmesi i\u00e7in ABD sava\u015f gemilerinin yeniden m\u00fchimmat y\u00fcklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nemde, 2025\u2019te jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler USD\/CAD\u2019de dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn 10 Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla odak, BoC ile Fed\u2019in farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlere giden para politikas\u0131 patikalar\u0131na kayd\u0131. Bu da belirsizli\u011fi askeri s\u00f6ylemden \u00e7ok ekonomik verilere ba\u011fl\u0131 hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Mart 2026 ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019si y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5 ile beklentinin \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu, Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerini erteleyebilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda da ge\u00e7en ay 275 bin yeni istihdamla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek faizi savunan yakla\u015f\u0131m) beklenenden uzun s\u00fcre koruma riskine kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlarla (belirli tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7) korunmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu ortam, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine oynayan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kanada taraf\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Mart 2026 istihdam raporu 2.200 ki\u015filik net kayba i\u015faret etti. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %6,1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Zay\u0131f veriler, BoC\u2019nin Fed\u2019den \u00f6nce faiz indirimine gidebilece\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, USD\/CAD \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te man\u015fetlere duyarl\u0131 dalgalanman\u0131n aksine, bug\u00fcn fiyat hareketi daha \u00e7ok veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve merkez bankas\u0131 ileti\u015fimine ba\u011fl\u0131. USD\/CAD opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) 3 ayl\u0131k vadede %7,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; bir ay \u00f6nce %6,5\u2019ti. Bu, piyasan\u0131n politika toplant\u0131lar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda daha sert hareketleri \u015fimdiden fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u00f6n tahmininden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayan \u201cuzun oynakl\u0131k\u201d stratejilerini (\u00f6r. straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 fiyattan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte alma) yakla\u015fan faiz kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde izleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi etti; jeopolitik belirsizlik ve zay\u0131flayan Kanada istihdam\u0131 BoC\u2019nin erken faiz indirimi ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonu dolar\u0131 desteklerken, opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44369","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44369","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44369"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44369\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44369"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44369"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44369"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}