Alt\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.775 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti ve haftay\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez art\u0131da kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. Piyasalar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeleri ve son ABD enflasyon verisini izledi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 mal ve hizmetlerin fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7er) martta ayl\u0131k bazda (MoM: bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re) %0,9 artt\u0131; \u00f6nceki ay %0,3\u2019t\u00fc. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (YoY: ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re) T\u00dcFE \u015fubattaki %2,4\u2019ten %3,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Art\u0131\u015fta enerji maliyetleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131yla (risk alg\u0131s\u0131 iyile\u015fti\u011finde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) ABD Dolar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda iki haftal\u0131k ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131 bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekledi. L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ve ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin Pakistan\u2019da yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n planlanmas\u0131 da alt\u0131na olan talebi canl\u0131 tuttu.<\/p>\n
4 saatlik grafikte alt\u0131n, mart ay\u0131nda 4.100 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki dipten (swing low: k\u0131sa vadeli dip seviye) bu yana y\u00fckselen bir kanal i\u00e7inde daha y\u00fcksek zirveler ve daha y\u00fcksek dipler yapt\u0131. Fiyat 4.876 dolardaki 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: belirli d\u00f6nem fiyat ortalamas\u0131, trendi g\u00f6sterir) alt\u0131nda, 4.608 dolardaki 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 57 civar\u0131nda, MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama: trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) ise sinyal \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131nda seyretti.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7 4.878 dolar civar\u0131nda izlenirken 5.000 dolara do\u011fru hareket ihtimali konu\u015fuluyor. Destek 4.700 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.608 dolar seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (core CPI: g\u0131da ve enerji gibi oynak kalemleri d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131r) fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n daha kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. Merkez bankalar\u0131 genelde %2 enflasyonu hedefler. Enflasyon y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalma ihtimali artar; bu da alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirmeyen varl\u0131kta \u201cta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetini\u201d (faiz geliri ka\u00e7\u0131rma maliyeti) y\u00fckselterek fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tabloda alt\u0131n, z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; yak\u0131n vadede net bir y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bahis yapmak riskli. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik belirsizlik fiyatlara taban olu\u015ftururken, y\u00fcksek ABD enflasyonu y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu da alt\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdilik belirli bir bantta kalmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Marttaki %3,3\u2019l\u00fck enflasyon enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015fla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor ve 2022 boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fclen enflasyon s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS) 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek verileri, Fed\u2019in daha \u00e7ok izledi\u011fi \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin (Personal Consumption Expenditures: ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi; \u00e7ekirdek olan\u0131 g\u0131da ve enerjiyi hari\u00e7 tutar) %2,8 civar\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu oran Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde; enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d modunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasada k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m (breakout: fiyat\u0131n destek\/diren\u00e7 band\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde a\u015fmas\u0131) i\u00e7in en olas\u0131 tetikleyici ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakereleri. 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flarken Brent vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine h\u0131zla \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, enerjideki hareketin Fed planlar\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar \u00e7abuk bozabildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde ilerleme alt\u0131n\u0131 4.600 dolar deste\u011fine do\u011fru sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir; g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 ise 5.000 dolar direncine do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda opsiyon stratejilerini (opsiyon: belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) daha i\u015flevsel k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u201cStrangle\u201d (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte alma: fiyat d\u0131\u015far\u0131 ta\u015farsa kazan\u00e7 ama\u00e7lan\u0131r) stratejisinde, 5.000 dolar civar\u0131nda \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131\u201d (strike: opsiyonun hak fiyat\u0131) bir al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: alma hakk\u0131) ile 4.650 dolar civar\u0131nda bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131nabilir. Bu yap\u0131, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne olursa olsun belirgin hareketinden kazan\u00e7 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Mevcut s\u0131k\u0131\u015fman\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in \u201cvolatilite satmak\u201d (volatilite: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131; satmak, opsiyonda prim toplay\u0131p b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket beklememek) daha uygun olabilir. 4.775 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n kurulan \u201ciron condor\u201d (s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli bant stratejisi: iki al\u0131m, iki sat\u0131m opsiyonuyla fiyat\u0131n aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131na oynan\u0131r) ile alt\u0131n, ana destek ve diren\u00e7 aras\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece prim geliri ama\u00e7lan\u0131r. Bu, k\u0131sa vadede jeopolitik risk ile enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n birbirini dengelemeye devam edece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Piyasa verileri ise sakinlikten ziyade b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete haz\u0131rl\u0131k oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. CME Group opsiyon verileri, may\u0131s vadelerinde 5.000 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 civar\u0131ndaki \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda; hemen k\u00e2rda olmayan) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda ve 4.650 dolar alt\u0131ndaki sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonun (open interest: kapat\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f s\u00f6zle\u015fme say\u0131s\u0131) belirgin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Alt\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatilite (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) de y\u00fcksek; bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 30 g\u00fcnde ola\u011fandan daha sert fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 bekledi\u011fini anlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik hafta: 4.775 dolarda yatay seyir, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fe gidiyor. ABD T\u00dcFE %3,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karken jeopolitik risk talebi destekliyor; 4.700 destek, 4.878 diren\u00e7, 5.000 masada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44365","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44365","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44365"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44365\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44365"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44365"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44365"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}